Please give feedback on my bust-out hand

[J.A.K.]

This is hypothetical and I may be looking at it wrong... but if we gain 2% equity by picking up the blinds and the overall prize $ is 10k...that's $200. If the jump from 4th to 3rd is say $400 and we can fold into 3rd >50% of the time...we would fold no?

[veggies]

Not sure why I clicked fold, but pushing is the right play. I would push with almost any 2 in this spot. Your stack is just big enough that even the chip leader will be hurt if he loses a hand to you. The fact that you have a pp makes pushing less risky since 9 times outta ten when you are called it is usually with high cards by the chip leader and you have a flip to become the new chip leader.

Pushing is playing for first. Always play for first.

[4CardStraight]

were also forced to post next hand, and its over 10% of our stack, so were posting another 2% of the total equity next hand.

There certainly could be structures where you are right, and folding into third may have more value than this push. If this is a 3 seat satellite, its a fold. Most normal structures are so top heavy towards first that playing for first even at the final four is still the most appropriate strategy.

We cant know if we have a 50% chance of folding into 3rd. What happens if BB doubles up, and now were the short stack. Do we continue to have a 50% chance of folding into 3rd?

Lets use PStars award structure for 46-100 players as a sample:

4th = 10%
3rd = 12%
2nd = 20%
1st = 30%

So as an example structure from a regular site, using a entry count similar to this post, its clear ICM isnt going to prove a good fold. we gain 2% of the prize pool by folding if we can always fold into third, and we gain 2% of the prize pool in equity (appx), by open pushing. not to mention that we lose 2% in equity the very next hand if we fold here.

Your thinking is correct tho, that ICM does matter, and we need to assess prize structures, payouts, chances to fold into a higher place, and compare that to the equity in the prize pool we gain, not just sheer +CEV. Most structures tho are so insanely top heavy towards first that it needs to be perverse in order to fold +chipEV situations. Satellites would be one example. Another would be if we have one tiny stack with 3 people left, we shouldnt get involved with the other big stack.

[alewis21]

This is a push and nothing else. Not only is any pocket pair big four handed, your effective M is about 3, and you are deep in the red zone. At this point it's all in or nothing, and you won't have many better hands than this before you get blinded away.

You still have enough chips that can do damage to the others with 30,000, so the chance is good you'll pick up a pot that is a quarter of your stack. If you are called you have a solid hand anyway. Don't wait until you are down to 15,000 and have to push with 8 6 suited from the big blind. You will get called by virtually any hand.

[JustCuz]

Thanks for all of the feedback.

The payouts, as requested, were SOMETHING like this:

1st - 13800
2nd - 8500
3rd - 4600
4th - 2100

I'm glad my thinking is on the same track as all of yours. I did discuss this hand, though, with a fairly well-known pro who was on the rail watching the action, and he said that 44 wasn't a hand that he would have been willing to go out on in that spot. Of course, he didn't satellite in that day like I did, so it wasn't his stack at stake in the tourney. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks again!

[xxGreat1xx]

standard. You can't be results oriented. The right play theoretically isn't always the winner. gg join another

[SuperUberBob]

Shove so fast.

[donquay]

in the increase in prize from 4th to 3rd place money was a massive amount to me I might fold preflop and try to outlast the shorty

if I woke up and realized the goal is to win, I'd shove this all day because anything else deserves a kitn.

[ademjohn]

I am Obv in the minority here, but I say fold this hand pre-flop. The fact I beleive is being overlooked is that with blinds of 4k and avg stack of 36k.. all players are ss here..Even the "big stack" has only 8 M. There is no reason to put all your chips in with a hand that at best is a 52/48 fvrt.there is no doubt that som1 is gonna bust in the next few hands. If it is gonna be you go out better than with 44 utg. I wld rather You push with 68 in sb than this.Desperation level when you are at ft is not based on m..but on chip position, yyou are in 2nd place, if they all fold yyou would still be in 2nd place albeit w 8k more chips that you are gonna give back during ur blinds any way unless yyou catch a "real" hand in the blinds.

[levAA]

ademjohn,

this is a clear push, re-read the math 4cardstraight did for us. he demonstrates very clearly that this is a +EV move - if me make it we win chips.

don't get blinded by the 30k stack, as the pot before the action starts is already 8k - which gives you a M under 4!

in these low-M situations you have to move in and cant wait for "real" hands, cause if you wait for them your stack is blinded away (M<4 with 4 players at the table means you will survive 4 more orbits - that is 16 hands! - 44 might be the best hand you will see in that time).

i'd push worse hands than that