Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Other Topics > Health and Fitness

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:27 PM
David Sklansky David Sklansky is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 5,092
Default Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

There is no question in my mind that certain female Asians who never smoked, exercise, eat right, and have extreme longevity in their family, are better than 50% to hit 90 if they are 50 now. Especially given expected medical advances.

But what about American males who don't have centurian relatives. If you were allowed to examine and query all American, Caucasion, male 50 year olds without such relatives, are there any that you could bet even money would make 90?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:35 PM
DLKeeper1 DLKeeper1 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: lovin the flon, imo
Posts: 597
Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

no because they're most likely overweight so they will face problems like heart disease, diabetes, high blood pressure, etc.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:45 PM
shemp shemp is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: www.twoplustwo.com
Posts: 2,733
Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

[ QUOTE ]
If you were allowed to examine and query all American, Caucasion, male 50 year olds without such relatives, are there any that you could bet even money would make 90?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, sure, but I'd have to look at actuarial tables first. I'd guess a 50 year old never smoked married male is a favorite. Like I said, though, if I did actual research (I know you aren't into that sort of thing), I could give an informed answer (boring, I know).
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:47 PM
PLOlover PLOlover is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 3,465
Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

interesting you might be able to bootstrap it and say if they can make 65 or 70 in decent health, then if they are wealthy the tech might then be available to get them to 90.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:52 PM
shemp shemp is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: www.twoplustwo.com
Posts: 2,733
Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

Life insurance companies may start to monitor this thread. I'm looking forward to some groundbreaking speculation based on ethnicity, weight, marital status, cholesterol levels, etc.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-29-2007, 04:54 PM
samsonite2100 samsonite2100 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Bustin\' Makes Me Feel Good
Posts: 1,092
Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

I was reading somewhere that a 65 year old can expect to live to 84, on average. So this doesn't seem like too much of a stretch...
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-29-2007, 05:08 PM
cbloom cbloom is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: communist
Posts: 8,940
Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

Wealth is a huge factor. Aside from the wealthy being generally healthier and getting better health care, only the very wealthy will be able to afford the theoretical future life-extending treatments that make this bet +EV.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-29-2007, 05:20 PM
Blarg Blarg is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Who is Fistface?
Posts: 27,473
Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

It's my guess that a life expectancy of 90 isn't the norm for people who are 50, so if we can't pick people out for longevity by looking at the longevity of their parents and/or family, we'd have to try to find something else concrete to work with. Offhand, I'd guess diet, level of substance use and abuse, exercise, where one lives, stress levels, and wealth would all be very important components in longevity.

In the US, they supposedly live longest in Hawaii. It may not be mathematically sensible to give any 50 year old a 50% chance to hit 90, but I guess if I were to put money on anyone to do it, it would be: A non-smoker who is at most a light drinker and does no other drugs, lives in Hawaii, is retired and has nothing particularly stressful in their life to worry about, has plenty of money to meet any health needs and buy the best healthy food, actually does eat healthy and moderately, and gets plenty of exercise.

Hawaii has a pretty fair number of people who live quite a bit like that.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-29-2007, 05:58 PM
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: guuhhhn inner nets
Posts: 13,634
Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

Does anyone know what the rate of dementia (any form) is in 90 year olds?
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 11-29-2007, 06:38 PM
cbloom cbloom is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: communist
Posts: 8,940
Default Re: Can Today\'s 50 Year Old Be Favored To Reach 90?

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone know what the rate of dementia (any form) is in 90 year olds?

[/ QUOTE ]

From personal observation it seems to be around 99.9%
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:30 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.