3/6 - turning 2 pair into a bluff 150 bb deep

wiggs73 · #1 10-20-2007, 02:37 PM

Villain is sharpia7 who I have at 21/12/1.5 over about 500 hands. We don't have any real history and I don't have any notes or specific reads or anything.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($352.50)
Hero ($1392.70)
Button ($198.95)
SB ($897.45)
BB ($120)
UTG ($656)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $18, 1 fold, SB raises to $78, 1 fold, Hero calls $60.

Preflop, I think I'm deep enough to call this against someone who is passive postflop and will prob let me get to a river w/ a draw for relatively cheap.

Flop: ($162) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $115, SB calls $115.

Flop is standard imo. I don't think there's much to discuss

Turn: ($392) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

I'm definitely open to hearing why I should bet here. I checked because I wasn't sure villain would stack off with AJ-AK this deep (I guess 150bb isn't THAT deep, but it's still a little deep to be getting in with 1 pair IMO, esp. with 2nd or 3rd kicker). I thought I would have a better chance at getting a bet out of those hands on the river when villain knew he wouldn't have to face another decision. On the other hand, AxXh probably calls here and I'm giving those hands a free card by checking. Like I said, I'm not at all sure my decision was best or even OK here.

River: ($392) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $300, Hero raises to $1199.7

Villain timed almost all the way down before making this bet. He has about $400 behind which I *think* gives him enough to fold. Given his timing and everything else, I felt as though he hit AJ here. I think people tend to play scared once they start to get deep and I felt like he timed down trying to decide whether to check/call or bet/fold and chose the latter. It's also imporant to note that he has like 2 seconds left on his time bank, so he'll have to decide whether to call really quickly. There may also be a tiiiiny bit of value from AK calling some marginal percentage of the time, but obviously I feel that value is almost negligible if I'm expecting AJ to fold here the majority of the time. A con to shoving, imo, is that I haven't represented anything particularly well myself (bc I checked the turn), although I could show up with a set / straight / flush here. Also idk how well villain reads hands.

AAismyfriend · #2 10-20-2007, 02:43 PM

This is pretty bad if
A. Villain is stationy
B. Has any sort of hand reading skills

If that is not the case, than maybe it will work. It's also possible you are not bluffing, although I think he'd bet less with AK here.

nextgenneo · #3 10-20-2007, 02:48 PM

I think I bet the turn here most of the time for about $260.

As played on the river I am scratching my head, really not too sure that he will fold AJ. I also think that he wont fold AK on the river too tho the way you played it but maybe thats because I play on Party. You've underrepped your hand on the turn so it almost seems to me that the river is for value. Need to think about it a bit more though.

BobboFitos · #4 10-20-2007, 02:48 PM

this is not a bluff
bet turn, stackoff

MATT111 · #5 10-20-2007, 02:51 PM

I don`t get it. What exactly are you trying to get to fold? He doesn`t have aces up here a whole lot given his stats and who knows if he`s able to fold it. Trying to get him to fold a set is generally not a good plan.
Also: You just HAVE to raise the flop on this board imo.

Praetor · #6 10-20-2007, 02:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this is not a bluff
bet turn, stackoff

[/ QUOTE ]

tufat23 · #7 10-20-2007, 02:53 PM

if i didnt see villains stats, id say he was bluffing not you

wiggs73 · #8 10-20-2007, 03:17 PM

Bobbo & Praetor,

Still shove as played?

Matt,

re: What exactly are you trying to get to fold?

AJ. Also I bet the flop after being checked to...

Eagles · #9 10-20-2007, 03:22 PM

Wiggs,
Nobody is folding AJ here... just bet the turn and call a shove you have the best hand on the turn like 95% of the time and he'll shove/call a lot of stuff like Ax with a heart KK-TT with a heart.

Praetor · #10 10-20-2007, 03:23 PM

its not a bluff, its for value from AK and AQ, and yes still shove as played

but DEFINITELY bet the turn