NL200 - flop a combo draw

[bilbo-san]

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i would jam here. he will sometimes fold a marginal flush draw, i think. and if you do get ai vs a bigger flush draw, you're not totally hosed unless he has JsXs. villain will also fold Jx sometimes, and sometimes he will be screwing around and have air or second pair or whatever, even though it is a 3 way pot.

as for the question of pushing vs making an obviously pc'ing raise, i dunno. i'd be surprised if it mattered that much, but if someone had some huge datamined sample or something i'd be curious to see it.

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Yeah, he folds Jx sometimes, but he rarely has Jx, or if he has Jx, and decided to raise with it, he probably wasn't taking a raise/fold line, cause no one ever does that with top pair.

If you push and he folds, it's probably something like a higher flush draw or pure snow.

So, as Mike pointed out, he needs to be on a higher flush draw (but not the NFD because that often calls) or snow > 40% of the time.

That's very wishful thinking.

[mertzo]

3bet!

[bilbo-san]

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i would 3 bet him and try to get all the money in here now. if he has a flush draw and still calls a 3 bet then so be it. thems the breaks.

you still should have some considerable fold equity if u 3 bet because theres no reason to believe u dont have AA-QQ here. i would fully expect anyone reasonable to fold any jack especially without an ace kicker. its also entirely possible he could be making a play here himself.

when u have 12+ outs on the flop u really shouldnt overthink the hand. ur concern should be trying to get the money in while ur hand still has alot of bark.

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Again, a 20/13 just isn't very likely to turn a hand like QJ into a bluff here. As the OP stated, the high AF doesn't mean much over 70 hands.

Read hands, guys. Saying "he'll fold a jack" is not very helpful because he rarely HAS a jack given this action.

[Jay Riall]

I wouldn't lead flop if I wasn't shoving over a raise. He raised your lead and now you are thinking wtf do i do??? Not a good way to play a hand. If he calls your lead what do you do on a blank turn (over 75% of the time)? I think as played we should fold because he has a decent hand which he is calling a shove with a lot, and calling the flop raise really blows.

I would have chewck/raised this flop or sometimes check-called - this really isn't a huge draw where we want all our money in on the flop with little FE. If you do want to find FE on the flop then a CR is the way to do it, because he is actually going to fold hands to this, plus we can get some dead money in the pot sometimes.

[mertzo]

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I wouldn't lead flop if I wasn't shoving over a raise. He raised and now you are thinking wtf do i do??? IF he calls what do you do on a blank turn? I think as played we should fold because he has a decent hand which he is calling a shove with a lot, and calling really blows. I would have chewck/raised this flop or sometimes check-called - this really isn't a huge draw where we want all our money in on the flop with little FE.

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qft

[Mike MacIntosh]

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I wouldn't lead flop if I wasn't shoving over a raise. He raised and now you are thinking wtf do i do??? IF he calls what do you do on a blank turn? I think as played we should fold because he has a decent hand which he is calling a shove with a lot, and calling really blows. I would have chewck/raised this flop or sometimes check-called - this really isn't a huge draw where we want all our money in on the flop with little FE.

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Seems really results orientated.

I mean we get a good flop for our hand, on a board that we should have decent FE on with a cbet. Betting this flop is just super standard IMO.

[Jay Riall]

lol I edited it, see if youa agree with the edited version aswell.

[Bukem_]

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Again, a 20/13 just isn't very likely to turn a hand like QJ into a bluff here. As the OP stated, the high AF doesn't mean much over 70 hands.

Read hands, guys. Saying "he'll fold a jack" is not very helpful because he rarely HAS a jack given this action.

[/ QUOTE ]

These guys are actually the ideal opponents to do this against cause they will actually raise to find out where they are at with qj/protect from scary cards, then puke when they get more action than they realize they can handle.

How many posts have you seen on this forum from people raising/puking with marginal hands.

[Jay Riall]

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How many posts have you seen on this forum from people raising/puking with marginal hands.

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Most of the time if they are bad enough to raise/puke with TP or QQ or something then they are bad enough to think 'overpair or top pair on not very scary board getting good odds - Allin!'

[RainbowBright]

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I wouldn't lead flop if I wasn't shoving over a raise. He raised your lead and now you are thinking wtf do i do??? Not a good way to play a hand. If he calls your lead what do you do on a blank turn (over 75% of the time)? I think as played we should fold because he has a decent hand which he is calling a shove with a lot, and calling the flop raise really blows.

I would have chewck/raised this flop or sometimes check-called - this really isn't a huge draw where we want all our money in on the flop with little FE. If you do want to find FE on the flop then a CR is the way to do it, because he is actually going to fold hands to this, plus we can get some dead money in the pot sometimes.

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I don't get checking the flop. It's not a very drawy board with the 62J. So I think there's a good chance that by bettting the flop, we'll likely get better hands to fold. And I think the chance that we get raised on this flop is pretty low. Also betting might get the CO to fold which will often give us position on the turn.