20$: AA fold preflop? (honestly!)

[DevinLake]

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today for lunch i had nothing! i actually slept through lunch.

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I'm considering Arbys, but I dunno. I've been disappointed the last few times. I'm looking for something new. Suggestions?

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AMT and I had Papa John's...it's my second time having it. Inspired by the Wicks thread.

[Pudge714]

I played mildly hungover all day to get supernova. I am going to see the new Die Hard movie and I don't know if there is any food in my house. Will report back later.

[darom03]

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I played mildly hungover all day to get supernova. I am going to see the new Die Hard movie and I don't know if there is any food in my house. Will report back later.

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I'm a bit disappointed by these kind of responses. Or maybe you think that my question is so worthless, that you making posts about what to eat, seem like the right way to go about it?

The payout structure is 65/35. Does that chance anything, or is it still an easy push even though SB have 0$ equity?

[holy32]

I dunno, I tried doing some calc w/ sngwiz. If SB is only calling AA (you can't exclude everything) and BB is calling as wide as 23% it still tells me AT+, 88 is a push here.

[ymu]

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I played mildly hungover all day to get supernova. I am going to see the new Die Hard movie and I don't know if there is any food in my house. Will report back later.

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I'm a bit disappointed by these kind of responses. Or maybe you think that my question is so worthless, that you making posts about what to eat, seem like the right way to go about it?

The payout structure is 65/35. Does that chance anything, or is it still an easy push even though SB have 0$ equity?

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No, it changes nothing. Big stack only has around double your chipstack. Tempting as he might find it to take you out before finishing off shortie he'd be taking a big risk as he's offering to hand you the big stack just as HU starts.

You have a ton of FE because he has to know you're very strong to push here. You cannot be less than a 3.1:1 favourite to double up if called.

It would be a fold if you were down to ~1 chip and thus approximately zero chance of winning regardless and shortie was guaranteed to be out next hand. This is so unlikely to happen ever that there is no point wondering whether folding AA preflop could ever be correct. Just push.


You're getting these responses because the question has been done to death and you'll find a ton of threads if you use the search function.

[darom03]

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You're getting these responses because the question has been done to death and you'll find a ton of threads if you use the search function.

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I have been a poster in this forum for a long time, and I can't recall this scenario being discussed before... Search yielded no results, but then again, I am no 2+2 search expert.

[darom03]

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You have a ton of FE because he has to know you're very strong to push here. You cannot be less than a 3.1:1 favourite to double up if called.

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True, but regardless of me being a huge favorite, I still have to risk me getting in the money, when I have a different option available that will guarantee a top two finish... that has to count for something, right?

EDIT: I mean, can this really be solved by simple ICM, when you have to take into consideration that you have someone who will finish out of the money 100% if I fold?

[holy32]

Well, ICM is always the way to calculate things in sng's. It's basically only a way of estimating/calculating your chips as equity.

If you really wan't to know the answer you should calculate your Eq if you fold every hand untill shortie is out, and then you calculate your Eq if you push and BB calls w/ some reasonable range.

[ymu]

To be fair, it's not the easiest one to search for - but it appears regularly (2 in the last couple of hours in this forum alone).

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You have a ton of FE because he has to know you're very strong to push here. You cannot be less than a 3.1:1 favourite to double up if called.

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True, but regardless of me being a huge favorite, I still have to risk me getting in the money, when I have a different option available that will guarantee a top two finish... that has to count for something, right?

EDIT: I mean, can this really be solved by simple ICM, when you have to take into consideration that you have someone who will finish out of the money 100% if I fold?

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You've had several serious answers. There's another thread on the front page with the same answers. Someone ran it through ICM for you. If you want to give shortie 0% equity just run it through ICM giving him a single chip and a 0% calling range.

I don't know what else you want to hear - unless it's FOLD!!! If you wanna fold, fold. It's your money.

[Finnisher]

If shortie doesn't get a showdown this is a lot easier to figure out. You just have to look a couple of hands ahead. If you don't bust you'll start HU in the BB with blinds at 200/400. If you fold worst case, apart from busting, is that biggie wins every pot until shortie busts and you start HU with t1085. Best case without showdowns is you get a walk next hand and biggie folds his button, which gets you HU with t1826. Then you just estimate how often you'll have t1085, t1826 or something between. Obv you might double up or bust on one of the two following hands and if you want you can find the EVs for those situations too.

Then you have to figure out what your EVpush is after this hand (biggie folds, biggie calls/you win, biggie calls/you lose (ties are meaningless) and then see what your EV is after the next two hands. Then you compare EVfold <-> EVpush and do whichever has a better EV.