3 6 top set and gutshot, looks like i have too many outs to fold

[RoundTower]

Interesting spot here, on iPoker. I don't know the villains very well but they both seem fairly straightforward. I'm pretty sure the raiser can raise with the bare nuts here, but he might also decide to just call. We are all approx 1150 deep.

I raise 2 off the button A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to $20. CO calls, button calls, SB calls.

Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB leads pot $86. I call. CO folds. Button raises pot to $430 leaving 700 behind. SB folds.

[wazz]

Interesting spot, I can see arguments for all 3 actions. In the sense that villain 'must have' the nut straight, it's an easy fold, but once he has some set/2 pair + combo draw hands it's a semi-obvious all-in, though he has nut straight here much more often than set + combo draw. If he's got the naked straight with no redraws and he figures to have you both beat now, he would be raising the bare nuts to charge whatever draw you both had. In that sense, I like stop-and-going any heart / checking any board pair, though I'm not sure you have the stack depth to push him off a non-nut flush.

In any case, you always have plenty of outs here, so if there's enough doubt in your mind, I like shoving.

[chucky]

The only way you can call is if you can bluff at hearts on turn. Otherwise, calling to hit 7 nut and 3 chop out is not a good strat. Calling this is also bad because you are OOP, so if a heart arrives on turn you will have to bet hard at flush board and hope villian doesnt have flush as well.

[mustmuck]

[ QUOTE ]
In that sense, I like stop-and-going any heart

[/ QUOTE ]

See, I rarely try this one with a hand like hero's. My problem with it is that I'm not calling the flop with a bare FD, and if have have a set/FD or straight/FD then I'm shoving the flop. So on the turn if I shove a heart my hand makes no sense. No?

[wazz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In that sense, I like stop-and-going any heart

[/ QUOTE ]

See, I rarely try this one with a hand like hero's. My problem with it is that I'm not calling the flop with a bare FD, and if have have a set/FD or straight/FD then I'm shoving the flop. So on the turn if I shove a heart my hand makes no sense. No?

[/ QUOTE ]

One must vary ones' play to the point that your opponents can plausibly believe you would bet-call with a hand that includes the nut flush draw. For example, you might do so with nut flush draw + gutshot without even a pair.

[Silent A]

Simulation vs co-ordinated JTxx ...

Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: khqd9h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
ahkskdjs 41.85% 240,146 21,860
jtMM,jtBB,JTBM 58.15% 337,994 21,860

There is $688 in the pot, it will cost you $344 to call, and he has $700 behind. If you push, it will cost you $1044 and the pot will be $2432. Therefore you need 1044/2422 = 0.43 equity to push. You only have this against a totally random JTxx (and only barely).

If you call and miss the flop, you will barely have pot odds to call (700/2432 = 0.29, and you'll have, on average, 0.29 equity). If you hope to scare him off if a heart hits, then there's probably a decent chance that he'll fold if a pair hits.

Let's say that Villain will fold any heart or pair turn card a fraction of the time, "f".

There are 16 such scare cards out of 45 possible turns. If he folds all these cards your EV for this line will be ...

EV = (16/45)*(688) + (29/45)*(0.29*2432 - 1044) = +$26

If he calls these scare cards then ...

EV = (7/45)*(1388) + (38/45)*(0.29*2432 - 1044) = -$70

So for this line to show a profit ...

26f > 70(1-f)
f > 70/96
f > 0.73

Note the EV of simply pushing the flop against co-ordinated JTxx is ...

EV = (0.42)(1388) - (0.58)(1044) = -$22.50

So the call and push a scare card line peforms better than a flop push if ...

26f - 70(1-f) > -22.5
f > 0.5

So Wazz's line is better than a flop push if you think villain folds more than 50% of time when a scare card hits, and it's outright +EV if he folds more than about 75% of the time.

These numbers seem high for what would be a 0.7 pot bet, especially when you consider that villain is probably more likely to fold on a paired turn than a flush turn (and you want the opposite).

Finally, what also concerns me is SB's hand. What pots the flop and then folds to a call and a raise? Unless he was betting his blockers with JJxx, there's a decent chance that he was holding at least 2 of your outs.

[CrushinFelt]

Your last part SA about the problem about at least 2 of your outs being gone is my main problem with continuing in this hand. Spots like these just don't tend to work out well. As SA said you NEED a heart turn + a fold too much of the time to make this profitable because you're never going to get action on a board-pairing turn.

SA what would it take to modify your calculations if villain is ALWAYS folding board-pairing turn and thus the only question is whether or not he folds a heart?

I think what will happen is that we need him to fold a heart nearly all the time.

[Silent A]

[ QUOTE ]
SA what would it take to modify your calculations if villain is ALWAYS folding board-pairing turn and thus the only question is whether or not he folds a heart?

I think what will happen is that we need him to fold a heart nearly all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just change the 2nd EV calc to (approx) ...

EV = (7/45)*(688) + (38/45)*(0.29*2432 - 1044) = -$179

and ...

26f > 179(1-f)
f > 179/205
f > 0.87

[wazz]

Assuming villain has neither he is more likely to fold to a heart than a board pair.

[pete fabrizio]

I don't have much to add to the analysis, but I call and lead any non-board-pairing turn.