NL100: Good spot to peel one off?

[Johnes Benjamin]

Here is a hand I found interesting. BB is around 25/7, not very good. CO is big donk running around 45/25.
I know 3begging pre is standard here but I chose not to, so lets not get hung up on that. Is this a good spot to float with AK? We have position and if we hit we should know whether we are good, plus T is the nuts and we have very good implied odds it seems. This is especially true since BB is short and CO is donkcity and I think I can get paid.
Alternatively, if board looks bad there is also possibility of taking it away from them. I don't often make plays like this so I'd really appreciate anything you guys have to say.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($100)
UTG ($104.70)
MP1 ($48.90)
MP2 ($105.65)
Hero ($131.05)
Button ($31.40)
SB ($53.80)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $5</font>, Hero calls $5, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $4.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($16) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $10</font>, MP2 calls $10, Hero ???

[Peleus]

Well looking at the pot odds I think we could see a marginal fold.

For arguments sake lets say a K or A will put you ahead.
Outs then are 4 T's, 3 K's and 3 A's. 10 outs in total. We have to adjust it a little bit for the flush draw (lets count the 4 diamonds in you're outs as 3 outs.) Apart from that we have to consider the times that the A / K will make the opponents hand (i.e. AT and the K coming).

I'd probably reduce the odds a bit more from there, probably the 7-8 outs. Lets say 7.5 / 47 = 1 / 6.2666, pot odds at 10:46 or 1 / 4.6.

Implied odds, or your chance of stealing might change it a little, but you're really drawing to the T there instead of the A/K.

Float would have to be a big bet, because if someone is willing to call down a $10 bet into a $26 pot, they are going to need a big scare card to lay it down.


Then again I suck at poker, so don't listen to what I say :P

[CalledDownLight]

your reverse implieds are really bad in this spot

[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]
your reverse implieds are really bad in this spot

[/ QUOTE ]