AA OOP vs unknown - Tough turn spot

Syntec87 · #1 11-08-2007, 12:48 AM

Villain is 12/8 over 35 hands - never played before with him

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (4 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button ($81.40)
Hero ($105.05)
BB ($60.60)
UTG ($103.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, Button calls $1, Hero raises to $6, 1 fold, UTG calls $5, Button folds.

Flop: ($14) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $10, UTG calls $10.

Turn: ($34) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $25, UTG raises to $87.25, Hero calls $62.25.

River: ($208.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $208.50

As played, two questions, how do you play turn, but more importantly, given that you bet, do you call all in?

Claunchy · #2 11-08-2007, 01:03 AM

Fold to the shove and it's fine.

Mase31683 · #3 11-08-2007, 01:17 AM

I would fold here. Based on his utg call, then call again of your raise, I'm putting him on a medium pp. The big pp's need to protect their value preflop. The flop comes out, and it's good for our aces, so I like the bet. I also like the bet on 4th street because we're still looking in decent shape. He could feel his 8's or T's are good or maybe he thinks your just c-betting and he's going to try to slap you. But when he shoves here, I really feel he hit his set and is looking to get paid, so I'm going to let this one go. I don't think he has a big pp based on his preflop play, and don't thik he would shove here with something as weak as 8's which leaves sets as a logical hand for the shove. Even if he was playing suited connects like this, he's probably on 2 pair, and all we have is one, so that's no good either.

Danibusman · #4 11-08-2007, 03:12 AM

hmm, at these stakes v. unknown im not folding AA after turn even w. these stats, call, shippp it, results?

Dire · #5 11-08-2007, 03:18 AM

Even if over just 35 hands, I'm giving a guy with mega-set-mining-nit numbers credit for a set in this spot.

orange · #6 11-08-2007, 03:40 AM

fold the turn.

primate · #7 11-08-2007, 04:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Even if over just 35 hands, I'm giving a guy with mega-set-mining-nit numbers credit for a set in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

erm over 35 hands you can't be assigning "nit" to anyone.

I play generally around 19/15 but over 4-6 tables over 35 hands I could be playing anywhere between 9/9 and 33/25.

YOU SHOULD JUST IGNORE VILLAINS STATS THEY ARE IRRELEVANT. Basically your playing versus an unknown. If you want to gambool get it in because versus an unknown on this board thats what you;ll be doing.

AMT · #8 11-08-2007, 04:29 AM

its close but i will say that your stats over 35 hands are indeed relatively meaningless.

Dire · #9 11-08-2007, 04:52 AM

No sample is meaningless. The smaller the sample, the higher the variance will be - but of course the mean of all samples is the true mean. What this means is that if you looked at all guys who you have 32 hands on that were 12/8, wayyy more of them would truly be around 12/8 than would be 24/22 (or whatever).

VPIP is also one of the fastest converging poker stats. There's also some small factors like the fact that a creative/strong TAG may be more inclined to take advantage of his nitty image at the table to make a couple of light 3-bets or steals (after which he would not be 12/8). In any case, feel free to ignore the data but it's not meaningless.

Syntec87 · #10 11-08-2007, 04:57 AM

I agree Dire, and even though I dont know for sure he's 12/8, he isnt like 60/3 either, and I think I probably should have folded since Im usually up against a set here.

esp since after raising PF and firing twice my hand is face up and he never expects me to fold my overpair, so unless he made some donk slowplay with JJ-KK I think Im crushed