Full Tilt $163, 4-bet semibluff vs. Bartley

[adanthar]

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I don't play online, but What do you put the original raiser and Aaron Bartley on? I don't like this play at all due to risk/reward ratio. But it is online so you'll probably suck out even if you do get instacalled by AA.

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These are the kind of things we are trying to stay away from in this forum.

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beat me to it

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you guys are so polite, I'd just have said "ffs never post again".

as to the play, I see people do this sometimes but the reason I see it is because there's a showdown. I think most people greatly overestimate the amount of spots where something like this is okay and/or underestimate how hard it is for people to fold any sort of decent hand.

[shaundeeb]

I've seen him make way too many loose/bad calls of shoves etc before which is why I hate the move cuz he's not folding his 55 or AJ if he has it.

[NoahSD]

Your read doesn't make it sound like he 3-bets much, and even if he does, this isn't a spot where people 3-bet too much since he's in CO and raiser is UTG+1 9-handed. A really small % of people will 3-bet anywhere near light there.

Plus he's getting good odds.

Anyway, guess I'm just echoing what others have said. This forum is awesome.

[mikeJ]

Some numbers.

There is 1575 in blinds + antes.

(1) If all 3 fold, I win 1600+1600+1575+7975 = <u>12750</u>

(2) If UTG+1 folds / coldcaller folds / Bartley calls...

Assuming Bartley calls w/ JJ+/AK, I'll have roughly 30% equity vs. his range.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.168% 69.21% 00.96% 156425952 2171364.00 { JJ+, AKs,

AKo }
Hand 1: 29.832% 28.87% 00.96% 65255448 2171364.00 { ATs }

(.702-.298)(-25945) + (.298)(1600+1600+1575) = <u>-9059</u>

(3) If UTG+1 calls / coldcaller folds / Bartley folds...

Assuming UTG+1 calls w/ JJ+/AK, again I have ~30% equity vs. his range.

(.702-.298)(-12246) + .298(11150) = <u>-1625</u>

(4) If UTG+1 calls / coldcaller folds / Bartley calls...

Assuming UTG+1 calls w/ JJ+/AK and Bartley overcalls w/ QQ+/AKs.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.658% 30.33% 02.33% 718310136 55259516.00 { JJ+, AKs,

AKo }
Hand 1: 48.040% 45.77% 02.27% 1084082844 53832248.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 2: 19.301% 18.86% 00.44% 446767260 10410908.00 { ATs }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.266% 70.68% 00.59% 87134700 725844.00 { QQ+, AKs }
Hand 1: 28.734% 28.15% 00.59% 34699500 725844.00 { ATs }

The main pot would be 39913. The side pot would be 27398.

.193(39913) + .287(27398) - 25945 = <u>-10379</u>

I ignored when coldcaller calls or when Button/SB/BB calls to simplify things for now.

a(1) + b(2) + c(3) + d(4) = cEV of play, where a/b/c/d are chance of each outcome and a+b+c+d = 1.

I will finish this later assuming a couple different opening ranges for UTG+1 and a couple different squeezing ranges for Bartley.

However, just looking @ this, if "a", % of time all 3 fold, is &gt; 45%, this is a +cEV play.

[mikeJ]

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I've seen him make way too many loose/bad calls of shoves etc before which is why I hate the move cuz he's not folding his 55 or AJ if he has it.

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If he's not folding 55/AJ, then this move sucks a lot. You're sure about that?

[nath]

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I hate the move cuz he's not folding his 55 or AJ if he has it.

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If he's not folding 55/AJ, then this move sucks a lot. You're sure about that?

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Reading comprehension FTW