$11 NLTRN - bottom pair + flush draw

[Landonfan]

I'm really bad with pair + fd type hands. I'm sure it's just a math problem, but I really don't know what math to do, if that makes sense.

We're a couple hands in. Villain open-folded the first hand and folded to my pf raise the second.

Blinds 15/30

Villain limps in the SB, I check with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

flop comes Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I lead for 45, villain insta-raises to 195, I...?

[ChicagoRy]

Clear shove, you're usually a little above a 50% favorite when called I think plus you probably have some fold equity here, especially in an 11.

[jay_shark]

I don't mind playing for my stack .

Considering you have at most 15 outs , makes you a slight favorite . In fact , if you're a favorite (most likely ) , you don't even mind a call since you're putting your money in with the best of it .

An advantage to re-raising /shoving is that you add fold equity as well . If he has a draw , he will probably be forced to fold as you're making it incorrect for him to call .If he has top pair , then you don't even mind if he calls since you're the favorite .

[Somekid]

While I think this is a clear shove (because we pick up the chips in the pot), are we really better than a 50% favorite when called? It seems like the only thing we'd be ahead of is TPMK, and even that's close. I would think anything weaker folds.

[Hopeatron]

We're definitely >50% when we get it all in on the flop. we likely have 15 outs, and sometime they'll have the NFD or OESD.

[Somekid]

I don't really think people are calling an all-in with an OESD (as the flush draw is pretty apparent). It's true that we're a slim favorite over the NFD, but even then I'm not sure that the NFD always calls an all-in here (unless it has 2 overs, in which case we're actually behind).

I'm not saying that I don't think shoving is the best option. I think shoving is the clear choice here. I'm just saying I feel like when we're called, we're not going to be >50% favorite the majority of the time. But I could be completely wrong, perhaps someone else could explain.

[Landonfan]

Alright, cool. I thought pushing was probably right, but I'm a pussy and talked myself out of it.

I called and the turn came and offsuit four. I checked and villain immediately bet pot. Easy fold, right?

[Somekid]

I think so.

[HokieGreg]

15 possible outs + fold equity = shove