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Value Betting an unexpected top set on the river
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2 6-handed (just dropped from 9-handed in last 2 hands) Stack sizes: UTG: $73.90 UTG+1: $200 Hero: $207.70 CO: $218.10 Button: $120 SB: $108.20 BB: $461.05 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] UTG raises to $7, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, 3 folds. Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($24, 3 players) UTG bets $20, Hero raises to $67, CO calls, UTG folds. Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($178, 2 players) Hero checks, CO checks. River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($178, 3 players) Hero ??? Further info: I joined this table after data-mining it and others for a while. I'm on my second orbit. It was 9-handed when I joined but has just fallen to 6-handed. The UTG short-stack has VPIP/Pre-Flop Raise%/Post-Flop AF of 26/12/10 and the CO is 21/3/3. Questions: 1. Pre-Flop: I called. I always used to reraise in this spot but since reading NLHTAP I've started calling and its worked pretty well. Any thoughts? 2. Flop: I reraise putting the short-stack exactly all-in. Unexpectedly the CO calls. Now I'm worried about a set. I rule out AA/KK as they surely would have reraised pre-flop. What sort of hands do you put him on? 3. Turn: I check for pot control and am surprised but pleased to have him check behind. Was he a calling station on the flop or is he slowplaying? What range do you now put him on? 4. River: I river top set and am now feeling much better about my hand as I now beat other sets / 2-pair hands. A backdoor flush is now possible but seems somewhat unlikely. There is now $178 in the pot and I have $133.7 left. He covers. How much should I bet and what am I hoping to be called by? |
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