NL 25 Over + nut flush? Call or fold??

[john_bcfc]

Villians is 19/16 2.75 over 143 hands. Seems decent TAG.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP: $71.50
CO: $25
BTN: $25
Hero (SB): $50.25
BB: $23.90
UTG: $10.65

Pre-Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.85, Hero calls $0.75, BB folds

Flop: ($1.95) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.25, Hero raises to $6, BTN raises to $24.15 and is All-In

Call or fold? Play any differently?? Maybe 3 bet pf...?

[herbstl]

RR PF (fold to 4-bet) and get it in on Flop, never call AT OOP. As played what do you think is his range - I think he will do this with JJ+, do the Pokerstove thing:

Board: Js 9s 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.768% 41.77% 00.00% 7443 0.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 58.232% 58.23% 00.00% 10377 0.00 { JJ+ }


maybe you can add 22 and 99 too - so your equity decreases

[FreakDaddy]

3-bet or call is fine pf.

You get more value at these stakes from the implied odds, although flush draws are always tougher to get paid on, but it's going to be less variance and slightly higher EV to check/call, and possibly lead the turn.

Your other more aggressive option is to lead, and push to a re-raise.

The problem is that you have almost no fold equity at these stakes, so if you're called in those spots, you'll likely be flipping, or a slight dog. So for those reasons I'd prefer the less aggressive line.

[Jappejynx]

I 3bet pf and raise a little less on flop (±4.5), followed by a fold to his push...
Hands I think he's doing this with:


Board: 2s 9s Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.315% 37.33% 00.00% 764672 0.00 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 62.686% 62.71% 00.00% 1284665 0.00 { JJ+, 99, 22, AJs, J9s, AJo, J9o }

[Sykes]

Depending on how often he raises his button and calls with marginal hands, I'd probably bump this to like 3.5, but flat-calling is fine as well.

I hate the c/r because it essentially turns our hand into a bluff and we can't call a push.

I think a c/c is the best play followed by either lead/call or lead/3bet (depending on what he reads a donk bet as. if he read donk bet as weakness, 3 bet; If he reads it as strength, call).

[Panic__NL]

Depends on how much he steals if you 3bet here. But as played you will have to fold.


Board: 2s Jd 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.612% 52.38% 00.23% 27484 121.50 { AsTs }
Hand 1: 47.388% 47.16% 00.23% 24743 121.50 { JJ, 99, 22, AJs, KsJs, QsJs, QTs, J9s, T8s, AJo, QTo, J9o, T8o }

[skibbel]

TAGs likes to raise a donkbet at a flop like this very thin imho.

Someone likes b/3b?

[ama0330]

I like a fold preflop. The difference between calling and folding on the flop is whether your ace (or even your ten) is live. Given villain stats I think its pretty safe to say you are drawing to only 9 outs so its really close, you are getting 1.77:1 on your call which means you need about 36% to call. If he has one pair you have 38% equity and if he has a set you have like 27%, if he never has a FD you have 31% equity vs a range of 2prs and sets so you should fold. He has to have a lot of lower FD's and crappy Jacks here to make this a call.