Marginal spot, Fishy Villain C/R AI on river.

[Trikkur]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $122.00
BB: $142.90
UTG: $192.25
CO: $37.75
Hero (BTN): $109.35

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is 46/37/3 over 41 hands. I've got an aggressive image and have had aces get cracked twice in the last 3 orbit so he might think I'm on tilt. I felt like he was weak, but couldn't pull the trigger.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO calls $1.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.50</font>, SB calls $4.00, 2 folds

Flop: ($11) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($11) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $11.00</font>, Hero calls $11.00

River: ($33) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $24.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $105.00</font>, Hero folds
Uncalled bet of $81.00 returned to SB

Pot Size: $81.00 ($3 Rake)

[BustoPro]

Your river bet is pretty bad, honestly. Just show it down.

Other streets are all reasonable but debatable, depending on past history with Villain.

[loosbastard]

River bet isn't that bad against this villain...but you need a plan for if/when he raises.

Looks like a flopped straight or oddly played set...hell even 9T got there. Unless you have a good read that villain is capable of C/R bluffing the river (which most players at these levels don't do like ever), this is a super easy fold.

Oh and I usually c-bet this flop.

[BustoPro]

[ QUOTE ]
River bet isn't that bad against this villain...but you need a plan for if/when he raises.

Looks like a flopped straight or oddly played set...hell even 9T got there. Unless you have a good read that villain is capable of C/R bluffing the river (which most players at these levels don't do like ever), this is a super easy fold.

Oh and I usually c-bet this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you ever gain by a river bet without a read that he is bluff-shoving with total air, like all the time? He's unlikely to call with a worse hand or fold a better one, and you leave yourself wide open those times he is bluffing.

[ofishstix]

i play exactly the same and fold the river.

[loosbastard]

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What do you ever gain by a river bet without a read that he is bluff-shoving with total air, like all the time? He's unlikely to call with a worse hand or fold a better one, and you leave yourself wide open those times he is bluffing.

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Seriously? The guy is 46/37. A bet here is a little thin...but there are plenty of worse hands this particular villain will call w/.

[ofishstix]

lol, i vb this vs tag and def vs this guy

[BustoPro]

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lol, i vb this vs tag and def vs this guy

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WTF? You have second pair and you are value betting vs. a TAG? I guess you either see how bad this is or you don't. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[BustoPro]

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What do you ever gain by a river bet without a read that he is bluff-shoving with total air, like all the time? He's unlikely to call with a worse hand or fold a better one, and you leave yourself wide open those times he is bluffing.

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Seriously? The guy is 46/37. A bet here is a little thin...but there are plenty of worse hands this particular villain will call w/.

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Name one.

[loosbastard]

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[ QUOTE ]
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What do you ever gain by a river bet without a read that he is bluff-shoving with total air, like all the time? He's unlikely to call with a worse hand or fold a better one, and you leave yourself wide open those times he is bluffing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously? The guy is 46/37. A bet here is a little thin...but there are plenty of worse hands this particular villain will call w/.

[/ QUOTE ]

Name one.

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5x, 7x, 8x, A high? These guys talk themselves into calling w/ all sorts of garbage. Against a 17/15 I tend to agree w/ your point...but not betting this river against a 46/37 is losing a lot of value.