Two stoxtrader hands

[cartman]

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In HAND 2, peeling with the intention of folding unimproved on the turn is certainly a mistake.

Cartman

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Hmmm, my math said differently. Did you find something wrong?

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Really the only way to get a good estimate is to include every turn/river card contingency. For instance, "we turn top pair Aces" is too broad. It must be broken down into "we turn top pair Aces, it is ahead, and it doesnt get passed on the river", "we turn top pair Aces and it is ahead and it does get passed on the river", "we turn top pair Aces and it is behind and we river him", and "we turn top pair Aces and it is behind and we don't river him", etc.

The main problem with your estimates is that you either ommitted or substantially underestimated the damage done when we improve and lose.