ROI Simulator Version 2 - Free ROI Simulation / Analysis Software

[rvg72]

Here is version 2 of the application - probably the last version. I just grabbed my description from the original version and added where necessary:

There had been a bunch of discussion about buy-in drops, chances of busting based on starting roll, expectations based on "real" ROI etc so I wrote a program that analyzes all of this. Here is a screen shot:



* # simulations = number of times to run the sim. 1000 should be fine but obviously the more you do the more accurate the results will be.
* Games Per Sim = games per sim (duh) - if you want it to analyze outcomes for sets of 4 then set this to 4 and if you want to see the expected outcome over your next 500 then set this to 500.
* Buyin - Enter the tourney Buy-In
* 1st to 7th - Enter in the prize money for each valid position (leave as 0 if not applicable) and on the right hand side enter the percent chance you have of finishing in that position. This version supports up to 7 different prize money positions so any STT's and some MTT's can be simulated.

* Actual ROI is calculated after clicking on the Simuate button.
* Simulated ROI is the ROI that was simulated - for any decent sample size this should very close to equal the actual ROI. Any differences = variance due to low sample size.

Now the 5 charts...

First one shows every final ROI of your sample, the % frequency that you should expect that ROI and the cumulative total. So this guy above should expect a 20%+ ROI over 1000 SNG's about 6.5% of the time.

The Second chart shows the frequency of the largest buyin drops over the simulation. So, over 1000 SNG's the guy above has about a 92% chance to drop 20 or more buyins over 1000 SNG's.

The Third chart shows the lowest point of your bankroll so, if this guy started playing $55 buyins with only $550 then he has a 40.5% chance to bust out (since he has a 59.5% chance to have his worst drop be 9 buyins or less)

The fourth chart shows the best ITM streak. So this guy would have a 15.3% chance to have an ITM streak greater than 7 over the next 1000 tourneys.

The fifth chart shows the worst OOTM streak. So this guy would have a 5.2% chance to have an OOTM streak of at least 20 over 1000 SNG's.

You can click on any of the grid headers to sort the column which is useful to find the most frequent result. The first time you click on it it sorts ascending so you will need to click it twice to get the results in descending order.

One of the recent threads talked about a poster who fealt he had a real ROI of between 15-20% and that his last 1350 SNG's at 12% was an abberation. A lot of dicussions came out of that thread wondering about % chance he was really a 15-20% player who ran at 12% over 1350 SNG's. Well check it with this program by entering what you think your real ROI is, set the Games per sim to 1350 and then check the All Results column to see what % of simulations finished at 12% or below.

Hopefully this software is helpful - A fellow 2+2er hosted version 1 for me and hopefully he will be kind of enough to host this version and supply a link but if not I will need an FTP site to throw the app.

If you are worried that this steals your hole cards and sends them back to me then either don't install it, wait until someone who knows how to look for those things gives it the ok or setup your firewall to block it (it will never try to communicate to any address for any reason)

Rvg

[tigerite]

Looks great - link? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Only kidding - if you need somewhere to host it temporarily - http://www.savefile.com/ is a good one.

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks great - link? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

As soon as I find an FTP site to post it I will provide the link [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

By the way, this app does require the .NET framework 1.1

[JaredL]

wow, great work. I thought the first version was excellent and you quite quickly improved it significantly. Can't really think of other information that one would want from a program like this.

[starvs]

I can host the program if its under 10 megs. PM me or IM me at sir starvs alot

[starvs]

currently hosted at http://starvs.net/roisimulator.zip

thakns for the great app

[Newt_Buggs]

very nice work

[BadMongo]

Nice work, this looks pretty cool.

Thanks a bunch.

[Martin]

Very nice thanks for doing this.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
wow, great work. I thought the first version was excellent and you quite quickly improved it significantly. Can't really think of other information that one would want from a program like this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it should calculate at what point you can make a "im running bad lately" post on 2+2.