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#1
12-01-2007, 12:42 AM
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
[ QUOTE ]
So to have 50% chance of winning (at least) one tournament in a completely random universe (which doesn't seem too far off when it comes to $4.40 buy-ins) you have to play a little more than 124 of them. [/ QUOTE ] This is suggesting that I'm approximately 50% to win one if I play 124 in a row? That sounds about right. 
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#2
12-01-2007, 01:19 AM
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So to have 50% chance of winning (at least) one tournament in a completely random universe (which doesn't seem too far off when it comes to $4.40 buy-ins) you have to play a little more than 124 of them. [/ QUOTE ] This is suggesting that I'm approximately 50% to win one if I play 124 in a row? That sounds about right. [/ QUOTE ] It's right if you really suck...somehow I doubt you do. IMO, you ought to be able to win 1 in 90-150 on average.
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#3
12-01-2007, 01:22 AM
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
[ QUOTE ]
It's right if you really suck...somehow I doubt you do. IMO, you ought to be able to win 1 in 90-150 on average. [/ QUOTE ] C'mon Sherman, you railed the one where I got 2nd place in. I'm awful... floating and then double barrelling someone that is gonna call me with an underpair to the board that is paired and four straighted. I'm awful
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#4
12-01-2007, 09:19 AM
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] It's right if you really suck...somehow I doubt you do. IMO, you ought to be able to win 1 in 90-150 on average. [/ QUOTE ] C'mon Sherman, you railed the one where I got 2nd place in. I'm awful... floating and then double barrelling someone that is gonna call me with an underpair to the board that is paired and four straighted. I'm awful [/ QUOTE ] LOL - If you're going to try to get the betting line to shift, you should be a bit more subtle than this... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#5
12-01-2007, 09:23 AM
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
He's already wussed out even though everybody has pretty much proved what the odds are... I'd still love to get action at 2:1 instead of GIVING 7:1 for god sakes
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#6
12-01-2007, 11:27 AM
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
Strife--
The terms of the bet were different than they were on the day I thought you'd be able to play for way less time. I'd still happily go back in time to Wednesday or whatever and give you action at a better price. Anyway, look, it's an arithmetic fact that if you're not terrible and you're willing to stay awake for 40 hours, you've a big favorite to win one of them. I thought that you still thought you were a total lock, so maybe there was some room for disagreement and thus a bet. Turns out you don't. Looks like there is in fact no such room. But if you want to turn this into a HU play-until-one-of-us-wins thing, let me know. --Nate
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#7
12-01-2007, 12:54 PM
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Re: *** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***
[ QUOTE ]
Looks like there is in fact no such room. But if you want to turn this into a HU play-until-one-of-us-wins thing, let me know. [/ QUOTE ] This would be awesome. I've got $50 that says Nate wins. OT
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