AQo hit top pair on river

[DrVanNostrin]

[ QUOTE ]
drvannostrin,

you shouldn't be asking what his river AF is. he only has 80 hands, even his total AF is almost meaningless.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's AF, not win rate. AF converges much faster than win rate. 80 hands is a large enough sample for this statistic to be meaningful (especially when we're talking about someone who sees 50% of the flops).

edit: AF also converges faster for more passive players.

[Sibelius]

[ QUOTE ]
What was his river AF?

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't post it because it's not showing in my HUD, but as you ask it's 1.67. Looks like a player who waits for the river to raise/donk. Still, it shouldn't mean that he's betting only with better hands.

I disagree that he's not calling with worse hands. If he's betting he's not folding when it's only 1 bet to SD.

[Wolfram]

lol at this guy bet/folding a pair. It ain't gonna happen.

I'd bet the turn. Value checks work much better vs aggro guys that are likely to fire the river as a bluff AND give you a hard time on the turn with lots of hands, i.e. check/raising both marginal made hands, draws and very strong hands.

If that was your read on villain then value-checking is fine. But given his stats I think that betting has more value since he peels with most of his range on this board imo.

As for the river, I don't know what to do so I think calling is better than raising. It's pretty hard to evaluate his range, but I doubt we have the equity to raise (>66%) given how coordinated the board is.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What was his river AF?

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't post it because it's not showing in my HUD, but as you ask it's 1.67. Looks like a player who waits for the river to raise/donk. Still, it shouldn't mean that he's betting only with better hands.

I disagree that he's not calling with worse hands. If he's betting he's not folding when it's only 1 bet to SD.

[/ QUOTE ]
my point is that he isn't betting 5x 66 Jx or crap on this board. in general, bad players get scared with all this stuff now that AK has a straight. it's retarded to think that he'd bet/fold a Q, but i think it's pretty dumb as well to assume that 5x/22 is 100% in his betting range and also calling a raise 100%. sorry

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What was his river AF?

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't post it because it's not showing in my HUD, but as you ask it's 1.67. Looks like a player who waits for the river to raise/donk. Still, it shouldn't mean that he's betting only with better hands.

I disagree that he's not calling with worse hands. If he's betting he's not folding when it's only 1 bet to SD.

[/ QUOTE ]
my point is that he isn't betting 5x 66 Jx or crap on this board. in general, bad players get scared with all this stuff now that AK has a straight. it's retarded to think that he'd bet/fold a Q, but i think it's pretty dumb as well to assume that 5x/22 is 100% in his betting range and also calling a raise 100%. sorry

[/ QUOTE ]

of course he's not b/c'ing 5x/22 100%, much less than that. but i think it's pretty safe to assume that he's b/c any J or Q. (properly speaking we should discount them a bit but add other weaker hands, but if the combos roughly balance we are fine). it's also safe to assume that he 3bets a worse hand 0%. so as long as we have >50% equity against his b/c + b/3b range, raising is profitable. there are much more combos with J and Q than there are with T, and even if you consider non-T containing hands that beat you, you should have the requisite >50% to raise imo.

[rzk]

ok, i plugged it into stove with some semi-reasonable range:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

Board: Ts 5c Td Jh Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.491% 55.49% 00.00% 96 0.00 { AsQh }
Hand 1: 44.509% 44.51% 00.00% 77 0.00 { 55, ATs, K9s+, Q5s+, J5s+, T7s+, 98s, AJo-ATo, K9o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T9o, 98o }
</pre><hr />

[milesdyson]

i think that is conservative toward raising, so imo that is enough to tell me to not raise. in other words if i had like 3 minutes to go over the info in that stove before i had to make my decision, that would tell me to call. Q7o Q8o J6s and J7o have to be severely discounted (flop+river), yet they are included. T6s, T7o, T8o are all likely hands, yet they are omitted.

[DrVanNostrin]

[ QUOTE ]
my point is that he isn't betting 5x 66 Jx or crap on this board. in general, bad players get scared with all this stuff now that AK has a straight. it's retarded to think that he'd bet/fold a Q, but i think it's pretty dumb as well to assume that 5x/22 is 100% in his betting range and also calling a raise 100%. sorry

[/ QUOTE ]
I think we're thinking of different opponents. The one I'm thinking of peels the flop with any pair, ace high or a backdoor draw. They take your preflop raise personally. They often bet here with only a 5 or J even though it makes no sense.

Anyway, I think we can agree it comes down to the tendicies of this particular player. It's kind of silly to argue about these tendencies because there are so many types of loose passive and their play can be influenced drastically by your history with them and the way each of you are running.

[rzk]

[ QUOTE ]
i think that is conservative toward raising, so imo that is enough to tell me to not raise. in other words if i had like 3 minutes to go over the info in that stove before i had to make my decision, that would tell me to call. Q7o Q8o J6s and J7o have to be severely discounted (flop+river), yet they are included. T6s, T7o, T8o are all likely hands, yet they are omitted.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are probably right, i was too sloppy with my range. depending on how i discount i now get 45%-51%, so probably a raise is a bad idea.