(WSOP Stud8 1K) Open trips vs. John Juanda

[adanthar]

I posted a hand in the HSMTT forum and would appreciate some input on it from regular stud players:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...umber=10784156

[dsaxton]

I think check-calling is the best play, particularly since John Juanda is an aggressive player. It induces a value bet from worse hands (the same hands from which you collect a bet when you lead out and he calls), sometimes induces a bluff from missed low draws, and prevents him from losing two bets to a bigger full house.

[bigredlemon]

The odds of him bluffing into open trips are around zero. The only real consideration is whether he would bet just a flush with no low or trip 7s. I don't see him raising with either of these hands, so maximizing EV would be check/call imho.

[Alchemist]

I'm going with check-call as well. In order for the bet to have value JJ has to have UI 777 or a flush and pay it off. I think it's much more likely, comparatively, for LFTV to get raised when JJ fills up himself, as he'll know he has the nuts when he does.

A bet also won't get JJ off of a crappy low hand if he makes it on the river in order to scoop a pot that would have otherwise been split had they checked it down (Hero could conceivably make a low hand from JJ's point of view).

[howzit]

bet/call would be expert play. checking lets too many good but 2nd best hands get away too cheaply.

by betting, it would almost seem impossible for john juanda to think you're going to fold the river after the action so it'd be almost always as a value raise on his part.

[howzit]

i originally said bet/fold would be expert. but seeing that john could be getting frisky w/a 7 low, this is now a bet/call.

(i thought juanda had a high only board)

[*TT*]

check/call. John likely has a flush draw and a low draw, or trip sevens.

1) If he misses, he isnt calling a bet.

2) If he raises, its because he can either beat your high with 7's full, or he has a high and a low and is hoping that you only have a set.

3) He wont bluff at this pot vs your board.

4) If he bets the river your only hope is that his high is trip 7's & he also holds the low, or that you induced a bet with a flush/backdoored straight. He isnt betting the river with a low only.

By the way this hand is straight out of a similar situation in SCSFAP and Mason's Poker Essays, except the hands were for high only.

[RubbishCards]

Wouldn't JJ raise 5th if he had 777? He's only behind if we have a wired pair, and way ahead of our more likely holding, smaller trips with a 3 card low.

IMO if he's calling down against open trips, it's more likely he has a 7 high gutshot (which there is no point in betting into, as we only scoop when he bricks and isn't calling), or a low+flush draw which we only scoop if he makes the flush AND misses the low.

So I guess I check call too?

[iron81]

This was my argument too in HSMTT, except I said check-raise.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
Wouldn't JJ raise 5th if he had 777? He's only behind if we have a wired pair, and way ahead of our more likely holding, smaller trips with a 3 card low.

[/ QUOTE ]

He could hit the extra 7 on 7th street, I agree with your argument.