HORSE Freeroll FTP [Razz Hand]

[RustyBrooks]

Even bad players get good hands. You probably need to redo the problem with varying percentages of him having a good hand. How to do with is somewhat problematic.

Against maniacs I take the line you did here except I won't raise the river with a hand this weak. And even though they're maniacs I consider folding every time they bet - I just do it less often than with solid players.

Honestly on 3rd I think I'd rather just stay out of it. Use 2dimes on T4 vs your starting hand, and see how far ahead you were at the time...

[Chip753]

"Even bad players get good hands"... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
Definitively more than true!

This is the result using 2dimes:
9s 2d Ah 55.47
4s Ac Th 44.44

Thinking about that I remembered the 7CS part in SSI in which it is written to not risk everything against a drunk when one is just a slightly favorite. I just called against him so...
Nevertheless, maybe it is interesting to see the percentage on IVSt:
9s 2d Ah 8h 79.48
4s Ac Jd Th 20.49

A brave villain or just a crazy (considering that I had a very tight image)?

[Chip753]

This is another possibility (better than my previous simulation for the side pot in which there were some mistakes about the dead cards and I put him on J+):

dead cards: 4T938T3JA
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
2A9883 62.57% 374,879 1,057
(8+8-)AJ53 37.43% 224,064 1,057

[RustyBrooks]

Well, if you knew he had T4, you're a slight favorite on 3rd. If there's like a 10% chance he has a real hand, you're not. If there's a 20% chance he has a real hand, you're a dog.

Also, his hand is "better" than yours because his weakness is hidden and yours is in plain sight. A skilled opponent with the T down will beat you in the long run against your 9 up.

Obviously your opponent is not skilled, and this hand worked out OK for you, but you did sort of get involved in a hand where you're in a coinflip or worse.

My mantra for LAGs is... they're going to be in nearly every hand. So, they're going to be in nearly every hand that I have good cards, I don't need to exploit them now. Exploitable tight players, on the other hand, you have to get into hands with them on purpose sometimes, because the chances are much smaller that you'll both get playable hands at the same time. Know what I mean? Let loose players come to you. Engage tighter players when you choose to.

[Chip753]

My mind understands (and agrees): I hope that also my behaviour will follow your words... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

To be honest there was also another problem related with 7CS8 that I really don't know how to play, so I had not so many time. That's why I anticipated the situation and bet on a hand that usually I would fold.

At the end of everything, thank you for all the advice.

[Andy B]

I culled "$100 Freeroll" from the first line and that seemed to do the trick.

Tournament - Razz (150/300), Ante 25, Bring-In 50 (converter)

Seat 1: 4,890
Seat 2: 6,868
Seat 3: 5,905
Seat 4: 3,725
Seat 5: 620
Hero: 3,573
Seat 7: 655
Seat 8: 4,952

3rd Street - (1.33 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 2: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes
Seat 7: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (3.67 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

5th Street - (2.83 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (4.83 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds

Total pot: (4.83 BB - 1,450)

[PrimeNut]

Chip, there are two flaws to your logic on the second hand.

1) He has no bluff potential against an all-in. He must go to showdown to win the pot. To complete with a hand worse than the all-in's ten high would be silly. Granted maniacs, especially in a free-roll, sometimes do silly things.

2) Even a silly maniac can be dealt (9-9-)A. In fact, he will be dealt (9-9-)A only a little bit less often then (T+8-)A. So even if you think he'd play (T+8-)A, you have to average the two simulations.

I would fold third. You are a ahead of (T-8+)A but behind (8-8-)A. Let the maniac have this one, take his chips away from him later when you get a 3 card 7.

Definitely do not raise 7th.

[PrimeNut]

Sorry, my bad. I gave incorrect advice on how to use the propoker tool. This does not change any recommendations, but for accuracy sake here is the corrected data for my read 9-9- and your read T+8-:

Dead cards: 4T938
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
(8-8-)T3JA 18.46% 88,451 5,012
(9-9-A)J53 63.14% 308,513 5,066
2A9883 18.39% 90,139 914

Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
(8-8-)T3JA 27.65% 163,855 4,063
(T+8-A)J53 26.68% 158,560 3,081
2A9883 45.67% 273,112 1,802

To analyze your 3rd street call you are either in this position:

dead cards: 4T938
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
(8-8-)T 19.94% 119,330 589
(9-9-A) 47.47% 284,024 1,620
2A9 32.59% 194,824 1,436

or this one:
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
(8-8-)T 29.01% 173,817 464
(T+8-A) 24.91% 149,071 810
2A9 46.08% 276,034 882

If your estimate of the maniac's range is correct, averaging the two runs shows you have the proper odds to call. However, it is a high-variance play and you will often be uncertain of how to proceed because you won't know if you are ahead or behind. Personally, I'd pass.

[Chip753]

I agree with you.
I continued to make simulation to be use to ProPokerTool: this is an analysis that maybe can be in the middle between your approsimation and mine:

dead cards: 4T938T
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
2A9 53.77% 322,108 1,022
(4+8-)A 46.23% 276,870 1,022

dead cards: 4T938
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
2A9 43.96% 263,221 1,080
(4+8-)A 38.63% 231,244 1,104
(4+8-)T 17.41% 104,276 334

dead cards: 4T938T3JA
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
2A9883 47.33% 283,675 617
(4+8-)AJ53 52.67% 315,708 617

dead cards: 4T938
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
2A9883 39.39% 235,858 949
(4+8-)AJ53 48.49% 289,660 2,505
(4+8-)T3JA 12.13% 71,495 2,520

I think there are no doubts about the fact that it is worthless to play this hand, even considering my feeling ( [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]) about his hole cards.
Nevertheless, what about this kind of approsimation [8- 4+]?
Do you think it is a good synthesis to the many point of views or it is too arbitrary?

[betgo]

1st hand, I would call 6th with a 6 draw.

2nd hand, I would fold 3rd. Calling 3rd is a freeroll play.