(WSOP Stud8 1K) Open trips vs. John Juanda

[Micturition Man]

I made a post earlier but I guess I forgot to send it.

I think your first action here absolutely 100% has to be a check.

With open 333 the only worse hand that will pay off is 777, and 777 will definitely bet if you check.

The difficult part is whether to check-call or check-raise. It seems to me that JJ is most likely on a flush/low draw, not 777, because he probably would have raised 777 on 5th or 6th.

So I like a check-raise. Hopefully he pays with a flush or trips.

[mshalen]

We don't know what the action was prior to 5th street or the pot size so in this situation I can't comment. I tend to play a MTT different from cash. Cash I tend to be much looser with hands but in a MTT it is too easy to lose a significant chunk of your stack chasing, catching just enough to take off another card or playing too many hands. Also there was no information about stack sizes so it is really hard to put someone on a hand or anticipate if someone was desperate, had a huge stack and was willing to donk off a few chips in order to break someone or what.

[Andy B]

Given that there's so much we don't know, how can you find it hard to believe that Juanda started with split Sevens?

[adanthar]

LFTV updated in the MTT thread - JJ raised with two big cards in between him and LFTV (who was the bringin). LFTV bet fourth and JJ called.

[Bartholow]

Wow, that leaves JJ's range pretty darn wide.

[kyleb]

Hey guys, long time. Haven't posted here in awhile (used to be ColdCaller), but I've been playing a ton online in preparation for some mixed game tournaments and cash games at the WSOP in a week. Here's my thoughts on the hand:

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Juanda will raise any low and any better hands on the end if you bet, and he'll fold every hand that loses to trips. The fact that posters like Nate will fold to Juanda's raise on seventh should make it very obvious that bet/fold cannot be right.

The river action in Stud is much different than Hold 'em. The concept of "value betting" is much different, and often applied very incorrectly by Hold 'em players. This is one case that qualifies. There is absolutely no value in a bet since Juanda will raise all better hands plus hands that get half and will simply fold all other hands. Therefore, the correct action cannot be to bet. So you check. Juanda may now think you missed filling up and may bet for value or as a bluff. You win a fraction of a bet here since he's going to be betting his worse hands more often than he is overfull. However, is there value in a check/raise? Juanda calls with all non-made low hands, raises with all low-qualifing straights, and raises with all overfulls. He cannot call with trip sevens. Therefore, the hands he calls with have no value against your obvious range on the river, so check/raise cannot be right.

The correct action is check/call.

[Bartholow]

You realize that theoretically YOU could have HIM boardlocked for low right? This means he can't just fold everything against you, and he can't just raise any low.

[Andy B]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that posters like Nate will fold to Juanda's raise on seventh should make it very obvious that bet/fold cannot be right.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is not the conclusion that I draw.

[Andy B]

Sorry. I misread your post and made a hasty reply as I was heading out the door Wednesday morning. I do think that the line I quoted previously is a non sequitur.

Juanda can't raise with just any low, because TV might be betting a low himself. Juanda can and likely will pay off with 777 or a flush, again because TV could be betting with a low.