$3 Million Downsizing.............

[idrinkcoors]

[ QUOTE ]
I like you bustedromo, you think wisely.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a former small stakes daytrader who went busto, he's got me thinking.

[SEABEAST]

[ QUOTE ]
There are two games going on: there is BT's game, his ability to consistently play his best against a variety of opponent skills, styles, personalities, a variety of stakes, and a variety of variance players, like Farha.

Then there is the metagame. There is his ability to judge whether his bankroll swings have become too dangerous for the velocity of money he is putting at risk.

It very important to keep one truth of trading/poker in mind at all times: if you are on a serious downswing, and you put it down to poor play which can not be remedied, and you give up, you are probably finished as a professional at that level (or at least for a number of years).

By giving up, you have so severely damage your ego-thought-process that psychologically you no longer can think clearly when playing at those stakes.

Breaks are an option, as are different opponents, different venues, etc. But there really is only one way to re-establish your ego and confidence without continuing the excessive risk: and that is drastically lower your $ velocity, wait until you start winning consistently, regain your confidence. This takes time, a lot of time, maybe a year or more, and it is boring and humbling compared to playing at the higher levels.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very well put, and something I am constantly trying to warn people about even at midstakes. Whether or not you are ready to move up often has very little to do with your bankroll or your skill level. It's more the ability of your ego to weather the storm of a downswing. If you would need weeks away from the game after a 15-20 buyin downswing, or it would take months to get your game/confidence back to that level, then don't [censored] move up. I see so many people think they are ready to push the limits, and then 2 months later they are a mess, and can't bear to even think about poker. Anyway, regardless of how relevant this is or isn't to Aba, it's still very well put, thanks.

[stephenNUTS]

[ QUOTE ]
DW,

"And you've, got, one comma, for ,,each of, them."

Lack of ALL CAPS kept you from greatness.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are responses like this what got you to a 31,000+ post count?

[john voight]

Im gunna throw a ball park estimate on his BR:

This year so far, the best players online have made

pr1nnyraid
$2.298.941,90 166 29190 179,21
sbrugby
$2.171.709,95 695 88135 681,07
durrrr
$1.168.792,05 440 61871 504,48
whitelime
$1.089.535,20 149 20731 155,9

(the guy said its YTD, however IDK if it is NL, or all games)

so it is safe to say (assuming those stats are for all HS games, not just NL) that if your the best, you'll make around 5 million +/- 1 or 2. Now keep in mind FT and other sites did not spread huge games always. So in previous years it may have been hard to make what you can make today.

So use this when calculating the projections of SB's winnings.

Now take this number, and subtract California and Fed taxes from it.

Now, IDK if he keeps all his money online or if he takes out money for stuff (down payment on house, care, blow). I am sure he takes a little out, after all, he does live in a nice area in SB.

Now we get to an accurate figure. 15 million BR? This would mean that over the last 2 years of his High stakes career, he made about 25 million (and thus played way beyond the level of the best player today for two strait years). Now IDK when the 2/4 and 3/6 tables were added, but they lay a big roll. If 3/6 did not exist a year ago, that means SB played/ran even better.

So IDK what his BR is, if it was a total ball park, I'd say now, after 3 mill loss, it is bellow 3 mill. Meaning it could be as little as 1 million. I would be surprised if his BR (not his net worth) was over 3 mill.

Either way, SB is definitely capable of winning his money back. And he understands that he has been the target of every HS player live and online. This really sucks b/c eventually he will break; he cannot beat every single opponent he faces and all it takes is that one opponent to break him. Now the edges in this game are small I would assume so "breaking" someone could take a long time. I am just saying it is possible.

Well, for me watching Brian play was boring b/c it was like so regular. He wins, he wins, he wins. Now that things are shaken up a bit, railing is a bit more interesting. (or at least it will be when brian comes back).

[antisocialgrace]

Thank you bustedromo. Your's are some of the most reasoned arguments ever put forth in NVG and make me much less ashamed I've slummed here for as long as I have.

I have the impression that all the young online players like Brian who had such meteoric ascents into the poker pantheon all did so in one of two fashions .. they either cheated their asses off multi-accounting and colluding or they had money to start with and played a super-aggressive style that paid very little heed to BR management and variance. In the case of the latter the laws of probability were bound to collide with that steep trajectory and slam it back down to earth. Without the humility or self discipline to abide by the BR spreads that at least somewhat minimize the havoc, these reckless kids never had a chance of holding onto their rolls.

Eric Lindgren must just be salivating reading all these busto threads.

Attention K-Mart shoppers .. we have a Blue Light Special on Ballas today..

[NickyC]

[ QUOTE ]

Eric Lindgren must just be salivating reading all these busto threads.

Attention K-Mart shoppers .. we have a Blue Light Special on Ballas today..

[/ QUOTE ]

bwhaha, awesome.

[mtgordon]

I believe that the 3M downswing started after winning over a million in Vegas. So if he had a BR of 4+M before he made the trip he's still over 2M.

[cbnz]

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you bustedromo. Your's are some of the most reasoned arguments ever put forth in NVG and make me much less ashamed I've slummed here for as long as I have.

I have the impression that all the young online players like Brian who had such meteoric ascents into the poker pantheon all did so in one of two fashions .. they either cheated their asses off multi-accounting and colluding or they had money to start with and played a super-aggressive style that paid very little heed to BR management and variance. In the case of the latter the laws of probability were bound to collide with that steep trajectory and slam it back down to earth. Without the humility or self discipline to abide by the BR spreads that at least somewhat minimize the havoc, these reckless kids never had a chance of holding onto their rolls.

Eric Lindgren must just be salivating reading all these busto threads.

Attention K-Mart shoppers .. we have a Blue Light Special on Ballas today..

[/ QUOTE ]

idiots like you are probably the most frustrating thing about this thread, just cause you can not comprehend the game at the same level as sb or guys that win for that matter you assume they cheated or colluded or w/e you want to cry about because your jealous, get over it.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that the 3M downswing started after winning over a million in Vegas. So if he had a BR of 4+M before he made the trip he's still over 2M.

[/ QUOTE ]

he won money live(~300k) he did lose back a ton of his profit obviously

dropped 1.2(I think around 1.4 now) online afterwards

[Jooka]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that the 3M downswing started after winning over a million in Vegas. So if he had a BR of 4+M before he made the trip he's still over 2M.

[/ QUOTE ]


I believe he left Vegas up only 300k or so after the bad bluff hand.