200NL 150BB Value on this river?

[Speedlimits]

<font color="blue"> Villain is unknown</font>

Ultimate Bet - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $426.85
Hero (BB): $360.90
UTG: $183.10
MP: $258.10
CO: $197.00
BTN: $462.30

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
4 folds, <font color="red">SB raises to $6.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $21.00</font>, SB calls $15.00

Flop: ($42) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $31.00</font>, SB calls $31.00

Turn: ($104) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $92.00</font>, SB calls $92.00

River: ($288) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero ?

[kekedarius]

tbh i think i check this one back

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
tbh i think i check this one back

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, getting a third street of value here by something you beat is pretty tough, and I think you are behind too often relative to the times you get value.

[aislephive]

Bet all your remaining chips.

[Speedlimits]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet all your remaining chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're hoping to get value specifically from JJ-QQ?

Is QQ a check and KK a push?

[auto111032]

I shove. Villian almost always has JJ+.

Edit: FTR, I check QQ.

[aislephive]

I don't think we're behind very often on the river. Also, most people don't expect you to play an overpair this hard and may look you up light.

Looking back, against an unknown at $200nl you might be better off taking the showdown, but there are lots of players who I would shove this river against for value and it wouldn't be all that thin, either.

[orange]

i think you should bet this river.

[Xanta]

Once he c/c again on the turn I have a hard time putting him on much more than 99, JJ, QQ, maaaaaybe 88 getting tricky, but obv not 100% of the time. You've got like $215 behind, most unknowns are going to have trouble folding an overpair but some can.

The thing that makes it tough to get value with these stack sizes is that it's scary if you shove, but it's even scarier if you bet say $150 and leave a little behind.

My gut is telling me bet and I'm pretty sure that's right, but I haven't made up my mind on this yet.

Oh, and I check QQ here against the majority of people.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
I shove. Villian almost always has JJ+.

Edit: FTR, I check QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeez, did anyone look at the hand? BvB deep, Villain has decent set value with any pair for starters, there are many other ways you could be beat.

There are exactly 5 pairs you beat, and 3 of them I seriously doubt get this far, and aren't paying you off anyway. So if you bet, 6 pairs beat you and are all calling, and you are ahead of 2 that may or may not call. And that's just the pairs.

Edit: 7 pairs that beat you, he's never folding AA if he plays it this way.