1/2: 2 hands vs. a donkey

[grando]

shove the river in 2

[ChoicestHops]

#1: Fire the turn. His stats say that he is a donk. Donks always put you on AK and when the second K hit he is not taking a "check the flop, c/r the turn" line unless he has the K with KQ or something. As played, it looks like he most likely slowplayed something, but you cannot call profitably here imo. The best you can do is fire the river as played and fold to a raise.

#2: A c/r shove is too much in this spot. There's only 44 in the pot. He's not calling a c/r without a full house and he's definitely not calling a shove without one either. Bet for value on the river around 2/3 the pot and hope he is thinking you are betting for a flush and raises you so you can put him all in.. or he at least calls you with a worse hand.

[shpanko]

What are we looking to get value from by betting the river in hand 1? Not saying it's wrong just asking [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ChoicestHops]

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What are we looking to get value from by betting the river in hand 1? Not saying it's wrong just asking [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


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As played, I think it's +EV to value bet the river. If he didn't slowplay, you are betting a small pot for value, in which you used pot control on the turn to keep the pot small in the first place. But if he raises you, you have to fold.

Personally, I much prefer a dbl barrel and fold to a raise on the turn with a moderate c/c on the river with a bad card. But as played, with him checking, you gotta bet imo.

[Dire]

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shove the river in 2

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I strongly agree with this, as in no other options. He has a flush, a boat or weak made crap. He's never folding any boat and it's going to be pretty hard for him to fold a flush even when it's plain as day you have him beat - whereas he might not bet it if checked to. And there's no more value to be made when he has a weak made hand.

[Proofrock]

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What are we looking to get value from by betting the river in hand 1? Not saying it's wrong just asking [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Pocket pairs, any Qsx. This guy had a tendency to pay off on the river with losing hands.

[Proofrock]

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I'm not worried about a bluff c/r I just think we can get more value.

As for betting the turn.. we have a draw but it's not to the nuts. I'd rather bet now and find out if I'm against 22/33 than hit the Qs on the river and have him go crazy. This, along with the fact that he's calling with random spades and a bunch of pocket pairs because we can't have trips ever makes me wanna bet the turn and make a decision on the river.

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I follow that. What I don't like is that I have decent equity vs. a naked king, but that's the most likely hand for him to check/raise an amount that I can't profitably call on the turn.

As in, if I improve on the river and he has trips I'll be able to raise and expect a call. If I don't improve on the river and he has trips I'll lose the same amount as if I checked the turn. Same thing with a boat, except I'm liable to lose more on the river if my hand improves.

Versus a flush draw betting the turn is better. Versus a smaller pair I think it's pretty evenly split, since I don't know if I get three streets out of them.

I'm not really a pot control nit or anything with my hand -- if it had been any other card that paired I'd be firing again here. I just felt like I'd be betting into trips too often and that I'd get paid sufficiently on the river.

I'm still sort of torn about this -- anything more you could add would be appreciated.

[thac]

But against trip kings, when there are 4 spades, he's probably not gonna pay off a river bet, unless he has the Qs or Js. There aren't many combos of KxQs or KxJs, and if one of the higher spades come.. how do we know he doesn't have a boat? I mean, if the Js comes, and he leads or check/raises.. he can have the Qs or he can have KJ or 22/33.