Soccer World Championship - Team Germany

Shandrax · #1 06-06-2006, 08:15 AM

Ok, the german team sucks. I know it, because I am german and I have seen every single game they played since 1974. This is by far the worst team we ever had.

Now there are two bets available: 10:1 for them to win the world championship and 1:10 that they don't win the world championship. One bet has to be good and one has to be bad, but I still don't know which one. Given these odds, I am absolutely indifferent. Any clue what to do?

punter11235 · #2 06-06-2006, 09:57 AM

I would take 1:10 side. Itsshould be clear that Czech team has at least as good chances as Germany and they are 34-1 against to win WC at William Hill. If the bookie is at least partially sane to offer those odds 10-1 for Germany must sucks hard [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

playersare · #3 06-06-2006, 10:04 AM

pinnacle currently offers Germany YES at +814 and NO at -894. so betting 10:1 on YES has value since you can scalp it right off the bat. and if they progress well in the tournament, the price will just get better.

rufus · #4 06-06-2006, 05:45 PM

If someone has accounts on both, there's an arbitrage opportunity.
For example, Iran is 4.33 to win at William Hill, and can be laid at 4.17 at Tradesport. So you can clear $40 or so on arbitrage.

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S · #5 06-07-2006, 02:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If someone has accounts on both, there's an arbitrage opportunity.
For example, Iran is 4.33 to win at William Hill, and can be laid at 4.17 at Tradesport. So you can clear $40 or so on arbitrage.

[/ QUOTE ]

any chance you could explain this in a bit more detail for a newbie? or send a link?

i know the basics of arbitrage, but only when it is betting on 2 different outcomes

ImBen · #6 06-07-2006, 06:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]

i know the basics of arbitrage, but only when it is betting on 2 different outcomes

[/ QUOTE ]

You would be betting Germany wins and also that they do not win. I don't have my calculator handy, but I think the combined probability that either of those two events occurs approaches one.

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S · #7 06-07-2006, 06:50 AM

sorry i was referring to the iran one

ImBen · #8 06-07-2006, 07:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
sorry i was referring to the iran one

[/ QUOTE ]

Using his quoted lines, it would be +333/-317, a 0.89% return for a 2-4 week investment. It's better than the bank if you don't have anything better to do with the money.

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S · #9 06-07-2006, 07:32 AM

oh rite sorry...

i thought it was 4.33 to win and 4.17 to win

thanks for clearing that up, seems pretty awesome

sunnypoker · #10 06-07-2006, 08:50 AM

can we please just call it the world cup
there's no need to change 8 letters into...
soccer world championship which is alot of letters.

there is only one world cup in the world