Turn play with AA in big pot

[Tryptamean]

villian is 35/21/2.2 over small sample.
I've seen him 3bet a flop then c/f turn (I neglected to note the board)....

I typically just 3bet flop here, but I'd be interested to hear alternatives

PokerStars 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero?

[midnightpulp]

Flop 3 bet OOP is good.

This is always a tough spot. You're ahead a good amount of the time here in a heads up pot.

I bet here.

Can't give AK a free-card or let AQ or KK hit a miracle for free.

If you get raised, I don't know. I would probably call down. An opponent with those stats might get tricky or he might raise KK thinking it's the best hand.

[sharpie]

Flop looks good. Turn I would bet and calldown a raise, people like him get weird on "scary" boards.

[pegboy]

(1)UTG 6way with a 21PFR over a small sample. I'd put about 25-30 hands in that range.

(2)He did not cap the flop? Many flush draws would. Not all. His flop play is more consistent with KK,JJ, AQ, KQ. I think that many sets would cap this flop for fear of free cards. Again, not all.

(3)So where is this free card we don't want to give him? There is none IMO. He's made the straight or he has not. The flush is unlikey given the action and your Ace. A set is not my guess but possible(even 99 now).

(4)I think the AA is WA/WB. WA to AQ and KQ. Way behind to JJ. Other made hands that beat you are more likely than the draws.

I check/call the turn.

What's our river card?

[sharpie]

[ QUOTE ]
(1)UTG 6way with a 21PFR over a small sample. I'd put about 25-30 hands in that range.

(2)He did not cap the flop? Many flush draws would. Not all. His flop play is more consistent with KK,JJ, AQ, KQ. I think that many sets would cap this flop for fear of free cards. Again, not all.

(3)So where is this free card we don't want to give him? There is none IMO. He's made the straight or he has not. The flush is unlikey given the action and your Ace. A set is not my guess but possible(even 99 now).

(4)I think the AA is WA/WB. WA to AQ and KQ. Way behind to JJ. Other made hands that beat you are more likely than the draws.

I check/call the turn.

What's our river card?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is AQ/KQ will usually only put in one more bet if we check the turn, but probably at least 2 if we bet.

[pegboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(1)UTG 6way with a 21PFR over a small sample. I'd put about 25-30 hands in that range.

(2)He did not cap the flop? Many flush draws would. Not all. His flop play is more consistent with KK,JJ, AQ, KQ. I think that many sets would cap this flop for fear of free cards. Again, not all.

(3)So where is this free card we don't want to give him? There is none IMO. He's made the straight or he has not. The flush is unlikey given the action and your Ace. A set is not my guess but possible(even 99 now).

(4)I think the AA is WA/WB. WA to AQ and KQ. Way behind to JJ. Other made hands that beat you are more likely than the draws.

I check/call the turn.

What's our river card?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is AQ/KQ will usually only put in one more bet if we check the turn, but probably at least 2 if we bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can we check call the turn and bet the river? We'll get the second bet?

[Gurravasa]

Looks good. Bet/call turn, don't give freecards on this board!

[ QUOTE ]
Can we check call the turn and bet the river? We'll get the second bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

But why?

[vmacosta]

if we're willing to calldown all bets everytime if raised then i think checking the turn is better.

There's no way we're ahead of his range. Also he knows we rarely have a straight so he can liberally raise sets if he's smart.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
There's no way we're ahead of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]
what do you think his range is? i think we're at just about 50% equity.

getting 2 and losing 3 is better than getting 1 and losing 2, though yeah it is still up in the air wrt actually having to showdown vs. a turn raise.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There's no way we're ahead of his range.

[/ QUOTE ]
what do you think his range is? i think we're at just about 50% equity.

getting 2 and losing 3 is better than getting 1 and losing 2, though yeah it is still up in the air wrt actually having to showdown vs. a turn raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

miles,
I used:
{88,TT,qq+,Aq,kq,kcjc,kc9c,qj,qts}

I was tempted to throw in j9s,T8s, and discounted aj, but that would just be too easy [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

I guess you could be ahead if he does stupid stuff like wait-til-the-turn to raise sets or somehow he will raise kq and not qj or dump qjo pf?

Anyway, there's no reason why you can't c/c the turn and donk the river if it looks ok (an 8,9,A, or at least a non-K or J). Somebody already mentioned that and got disparaged but I didn't think it was so dumb.