NL Bots on Full Tilt

[TheJared]

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If someone who actually understands statistics could actually explain the important of their stats converging and explain why players using a similiar system or working together would be unable to reach this level of convergence over the sample we have we can just end this thread, and make a new one about hating bots right? What am I missing?

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You're not missing anything.. for all their stats to converge to this level of accuracy is almost impossible. You can have preflop guides which will tell you exactly how to play and over a few hundred k hands those would converge. But post flop is a totally different matter, there could be no discussion of anything as has been pointed out, since the numbers are so drastically similar.

I honestly can't see this happening even if this was a group of people playing and deferring big decisions to a central person. I think the biggest clue is the river sample of the one person who they didn't have many hands on.. something like 200 rivers or something like that.. yet the bet % was still within a minute % of the others with much larger samples.


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I've read this entire thread and I haven't seen a single retort from anyone on the "I don't believe they are bots" argue against this point. To me (someone who took stats classes in high school and college is good at math but hasn't done anything with stats for 4-5 years) this statement seems to be the crux of the arguement. If their turn and river stats "converge" in such a way that normal humans would be unable to replicate they are bots, and if there is a way humans could reasonably replicate this (following the system the sweatshop owner provides) then this thread is entirely hersay and people just BSing eachother back and forth.

Lets stop talking about a picture of their setup, hersay statements about whether they time out, or a series of lies that they seem to spew (but is unprovable). These arguements are nice and I think they had their place at the beginning of the thread in order to get insight into the sweatshop owners mind/thought process.

So at this point I ask:
Why isn't it the policy of a poker site in cases like these to NOT give the player the benefit of the doubt?
Why hasn't anyone who doesn't believe they are bots explain Why in statistically terms that it is possible for this convergence to occur?

The onus of proof isn't on us. If no one else in the world/on these forums has stats that "converge" in this way over this sample size it seems to me that the "sweatshop" owner and his crew (or people on their side who understand stats) needs to explain this or shut the [censored] up.

[TheJared]

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OK, for people seriously following this argument:

Here is my thought on the convergence of late-street stats. I think we can safely dismiss 100% botting across all accounts because as others have said, these players time out, which is evidence that at lest some of the time humans are playing.


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I disagree. Computers crash whether or not scripts/bots are running them. Don't you think in the past month especially given the sorry state of the FTP poker software (and the accussed "bot owner" probably having to update his software) to work with the new FTP updates he would experience issues? Programmers that design simpler software (like say PAHUD or pokeredge) are still having issues getting their programs to work with FTP. FTP shortcuts (one of the best updated programs that works in a similiar manner to a bot, using a mouse click instead of another program telling the computer to click the mouse) went through multiple iterations and upgrades throughout the past 2 months.

Most of these programs had problems with the FTP software freezing up and stalling. Are you saying a bot couldn't have had the same issues?

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I also agree that it is very tough for 3 human players to have stats that match so closely. One person even said this is difficult for one player over 3 DBs.


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I think we need to make this clear. This is either IMPOSSIBLE or NOT IMPOSSIBLE. Which one?

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Additionally, we agreed that changing table conditions increase the variance of player stats. I think we can also agree that the variance of late-street stats is influenced a lot more by table conditions than pre-flop stats.


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Right which IS THE ISSUE. These stats are all the same, they shouldn't be even if these players are playing the same.

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Now, if we agree that human players play at least some of the time, and we also agree that it is impossible for 3 players to have stats that converge. How is it that all these stats look so identical? If these players do, indeed, play on these accounts, then there should be variation in these stats because different people are playing at least some of the time, and the variance of late-street stats is high.


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Exactly, QED. Any other questions? They are bots unless someone can statistically refute the above.

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On a side note, if these players do, in fact, discuss late-street decisions together before making them, do you see why their stats would have a much higher likelihood of convergence?

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No, because any of us (that play by themsleves) can open our PT databases, take 2 sample sizes generally equivalent to the sample size we have for these players and prove that this couldn't happen.

Right?

[Prospace]

Read the post. I just said I met him. Not like he even remembers me. I barely remember the day. I called people and verified the story from 2 different sources.

You people think what you want. I'm at the point that I hope he buys some bots and clears the 1/2 rooms out. I could give a F now. To tell you the truth, he is the only one that has treated me with any respect. Can't wait until all the bees die this summer and temperature is 130 degrees and fries all of you people. You can all write, but you have 0 comprehension. Every one of you plays devils advocate with each other.

[Prospace]

I'm now a fan of chuck, zeejustin and the rest. F all the rest.

[4drugmoney]

I cant believe I just read this whole thing. Great thread

[KotOD]

nation:

How do you go from:
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As far as them maybe using bots but lying about it, Chuck is one of my best friends. I have gone over to his house many times while they were grinding.

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to


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i dont know who that brandonjoseph guy is for the record. i've only talked to chuck (who's reading the thread and is going to respond soon i think) so it could be one of the other guys.

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to

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3. brandonjoseph is one of the guys, i just cleared it up with chuck and brandon. if you read his posts, he was just defending his friend. he has little experience with online message board etiquette and what types of conversation are accepted and encouraged. i was the same way when i started posting.

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In an hour? So you know these dudes really well, you've met them "many" times, yet you don't know who he is?

Did you have to wait for Chuck to tell you that brandonjoseph47 was the account that he created for this thread?

[William]

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I'm now a fan of chuck, zeejustin and the rest. F all the rest.

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Dude, welcome to the Zoo. You can change sides as many times as you want, you will be insulted just as much.
99.99999% of the posters in here have no life, have never f****d a woman and walk stearing at the floor. Please don't stop posting, you're making their day [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Bobo Fett]

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DID ANYONE SEE MY POST? I have verified who the Ring Leader is! His brother opened his mouth in a Pittsburgh card room.

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Wow? You verified who the ring leader is??? Good work! Of course, you could have saved yourself a lot of work by just reading this thread where he identifies himself, what, about 1000 posts ago?

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All,

I know chuck, the owner of full_tilting. I hesitated to write anything on the subject because he didn't want to draw more attention, but you guys are harassing him at the tables, so might as well prove you guys wrong instead of ignoring it.

Chuck is not using any form of a bot. He plays on full_tilting, and his friends play on the other accounts. They come over, play from the same IP address on different computers, and play exactly the same because they chop up all the profits. They sit next to each other and help each other out with difficult decisions, which is perfectly within the terms and conditions of FTP.

They are hard core grinders. They sit there all day to grind low limits and turn a good profit. Because of some player accusing them of being a bot, their accounts were frozen for the past month and a half, and they lost out on all of that potential profit. However, Full Tilt completely exonerated all accounts associated with full_tilting of any wrong doing.

Again, they're not bots or anything illegal against Full Tilt's terms and conditions. They are simply dedicated grinders who have developed a preflop and postflop style, and never deviate from it unless they have to adjust. They hammer new players and adjust for the regulars.

Now you know why they play so similarly; they play exactly the same. Chuck is a good guy, and to be honest, doesn't even know how to configure his virus protection; I had to do it for him. They play next to each other for motivation and chop up profits to reduce variance. Coming in every day, grinding, and sharing in the highs and lows makes it an enjoyable experience for them and is why they're able to grind for so long every day. It's a couple friends just shooting the shtt and putting a jihad on the 200nl tables.

tl;dr: They're not bots and they are acting within Full Tilt's terms and conditions.

-nation

ps: chuck has requested that his pictures be taken down from this thread, so if one of the Zoo mods could satisfy that request, he'd appreciate it. thanks.

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Nation,

Please confirm to the 2+2 community that I am full_tilting.

I am here to answer questions and defend myself and my friends who are being wrongfully accussed of using bots on FTP.

FTP suspended over 35 accounts I had assocaiations with (thru P2P xfers) and they exonerated all 35 of them. Why? Because we are not guilty of using BOTS at ANY time. Preflop, post flop....never

Full_tilting

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[illunious]

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Why hasn't anyone who doesn't believe they are bots explain Why in statistically terms that it is possible for this convergence to occur?

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One possible explanation is that two guys are receiving instructions on what to do by the guy in the middle, who has very strict/nutpeddling guidelines of how to play.

They can play 95% of hands exactly the same, and any situation that comes up where they are unsure is decided by the main guy.

They don't do anything outside the system because they share profits, or are being paid to -not- deviate.

So, it's basically the closest you can get to the same person playing all 3 accounts, while not violating any rules.

Say you have a DB of a nutpeddlers 150k hands (same player/account), if you pull 3 sets of 50k random hands from it, you would expect all 3 sets to just as similar as these, right?

I'm not convinced either way. In this situation, they could easily be doing the $8/hr thing, but I think this proves that it's at least -possible- for them to be not using automation software while having very similar PT stats.

[GeterPriffin]

Kinda off topic:

This is the biggest thread i've seen on 2+2 in a WHILE...what's the record for the biggest thread ever (in views and replies)? THe sad thing is..i've read every single reply!