How Big have to be CEV to compensate bubble situation

[maletaja]

First example:
19 players left(18 got money,shortest stack 3k)Blinds 2400-1200
Im sitting in SB with 9k stack.I have ATo.BB has 50k...
All fold to me,i push...BB call..im out..

Second example:
19 players left(18 got money)Blinds 2400-1200
My stack is 20k(average 25k,shortest 3k)
Table chipleader(35k) pushes UTG+1 allinn
Im sitting in CU and have JJ, call....out...

Last money place apr 2 buy in.

[jay_shark]

What do you know about the BB ?

Is he likely to call you down with atc's ?
If you knew that he would call you with any two cards , then shoving with a-10 is not the best choice since you face a 38% chance of being ootm . Considering that you're almost three times more likely to finish in the money than the shortest stack , this means that if you fold , you only stand about a 25% chance of being ootm .

So really this depends a lot on the propensity of the BB to call you .

2)This is a clear fold .

[jay_shark]

As for your first example , I believe calling is superior to raising all in against a loose player. To balance this strategy , you have to be willing to limp with any cards that you normally would have raised with.

[jay_shark]

Since I really liked your first example , I don't mind spending more time on it .

If the BB is following a perfect bubble theory approach , then he should be more tighter in his calling requirements . As they say , it takes a stronger hand to call a raise than to make one , it takes a MUCH stronger hand to call a raise/shove on the bubble than it would to make one yourself .

So if your opponent is a good mtt player and handles the bubble well , then shoving becomes a better alternative than limping would .

At the lower levels , you should be more inclined to limp with A-10 otb since many players don't know any better .

At the higher levels , you should be more inclined to shove all in here .

[maletaja]

1)opponent had 88
2)Opponent had AQ

I dont get why JJ call,is bad move?Usually noone shove with AA,KK even QQ they want to get action!Addition to that its shorthanded table and M is very Low.So i put my opponent smth 66-JJ,AJ,AQ,AK.So in bad case i have coinflip,better way i have overpair.PS.Opponent was quite agressive and he was table chipleader at that time.

[jay_shark]

Occasionally you will see overcards like in this example , and from an ICM point of view , you shouldn't be calling even if you know you're ahead 55% of the time .As I said before , it takes a much stronger hand to call a raise when it's bubble time . On the other hand , you should open up your raising requirements when you're first in the pot towards the bubble . Just be careful that you don't get called liberally , otherwise you just compound your mistakes .

[Pokerfarian]

Payouts would help but just estimating themish getting it in 62% favourite is a definitely a good thing here.

[Alex_Rules]

I don't understand why the AT is a fold. As in all MTTs the money is at the FT. Doubling to ~20k gives us a good chance of making the FT and possibly going further. Getting it in at 68% seems worth while when we are giving up the 2 buy in 18th place prize and giving ourselves a chance at the ~50 buy in 1st place prize.