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#111
09-26-2007, 06:37 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
[ QUOTE ]
What is wrong with using EV for this, what errors does it bring? It seems like the most obvious and easy method to me. [/ QUOTE ] Unless you suspect that the rigged aspect takes pot size into consideration then you shouldn't use money at all. The test should only compare the outcomes with no regard to funds vs the expected results. Once you include money you no longer have a reference distribution. 
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#112
09-26-2007, 06:44 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
do you have a reference distribution anyway?
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#113
09-26-2007, 06:47 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
[ QUOTE ]
I'm extrapolating from Party's profit. Since they Party is a publicly traded company they have to publish annual reports. [/ QUOTE ] http://www.partygaming.com/investor/...l_summary.html Party's net profit last year was $128M as it says on their site. And last year Party was bigger than Pokerstars so Pokerstars would've made nowhere near $400M. Party is obviously going to be making alot less this year without the US players, and I would imagine Pokerstars would too although I don't play there so I don't really know how much their traffic was affected. [ QUOTE ] Not really. If you had spent any amount of time in poker rooms you'd know fish never quit. They may run out of money but as soon as they get paid they are right back at the tables. [/ QUOTE ] I've been a pro for the last 3 years, I've seen the fish who keep coming back and losing. I've also had my brother who works for a poker site run checks on certain players to see how much they are down and there are some guys who are losing a fortune month in month out. But these guys are the exceptions and eventually they go broke too and are not seen again. The vast majority of fish are gone in a few days, weeks, maybe months. No matter how long it takes for them though, the fact is that if they lost at half the rate they should lose at they would play for longer. It's a pity the fish didn't just keep coming back and dumping their wages as that is the main reason, along with legislation in the US, that the games have gotten significatnly harder in the last 9 months. If you had spent any amount of time in poker rooms you would notice the different names appearing every few weeks and other ones disappearing never to be seen again. [ QUOTE ] Nope. It is very very simple to test. It does not require anyone to share their hands. The whole process would take less then 2 days. [/ QUOTE ] It is a simple test when you get everything together. It's getting all the data together and getting the long time respected posters to lend it credibility that is the problem. I don't see anybody coming forward with the data to do the test. If you have the data, the program to test it would be fairly basic and could be quickly coded. And of course you would need people to share and co-operate on this operation, otherwise it's all coming from one person and has zero credibility. It was hard enough to convince some people in the Absolute thread even with all the big pros agreeing with the evidence.
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#114
09-26-2007, 06:53 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
[ QUOTE ]
Unless you suspect that the rigged aspect takes pot size into consideration then you shouldn't use money at all. The test should only compare the outcomes with no regard to funds vs the expected results. Once you include money you no longer have a reference distribution. [/ QUOTE ] No, the rigged aspect would not take pot size into consideration. And I can't see why an EV vs Actual result comparison wouldn't suffice. If the all in EV calculation says you should've made 1,000,000 over 100,000 hands and you have only made 750,000 there is a problem. I don't see where the room for error is here. It's the same as flipping coins. If you got $1 for every time you called a flip correctly your EV would be $500,000 over 1,000,000 flips. What is the difference between that and the poker allins scenario.
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#115
09-26-2007, 07:20 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
Unlike other "rigged" posts, I don't think the OP ever implied that individual players were being targeted. I think it was a serious post to see if sites can be monitored for broadbased anomalies. That would serve the interests of all poker players, especially the pros. If it turns out that a site is "rigged" to help the fish, I'm sure everyone here would want to know about it. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly
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#116
09-26-2007, 07:28 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
[ QUOTE ]
ummmm....I make too much money from online poker please don't prove they are rigged [/ QUOTE ] btw guys, i thought that this is the person who compiled the "online poker is rigged" study that people have discussed lately.
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#117
09-26-2007, 08:24 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
[ QUOTE ]
Party's net profit last year was $128M as it says on their site. And last year Party was bigger than Pokerstars so Pokerstars would've made nowhere near $400M. Party is obviously going to be making a lot less this year without the US players, and I would imagine Pokerstars would too although I don't play there so I don't really know how much their traffic was affected. [/ QUOTE ] If you look at Party's 04 and 05 income statement you'll find it is much higher. It was 337M in 04 and 293M in 05. I use to play on Party in 04 and Stars is bigger now then Party was in 04. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Nope. It is very very simple to test. It does not require anyone to share their hands. The whole process would take less then 2 days. [/ QUOTE ] It is a simple test when you get everything together. It's getting all the data together and getting the long time respected posters to lend it credibility that is the problem. [/ QUOTE ] That makes no sense. Someone can be a respected poster and no nothing about statistical analysis. [ QUOTE ] I don't see anybody coming forward with the data to do the test. If you have the data, the program to test it would be fairly basic and could be quickly coded. [/ QUOTE ] What program to test it? I have no idea what you are talking about. There is no "Is this poker data fair?" software. [ QUOTE ] And of course you would need people to share and co-operate on this operation, otherwise it's all coming from one person and has zero credibility. It was hard enough to convince some people in the Absolute thread even with all the big pros agreeing with the evidence. [/ QUOTE ] Everyone who plays regularly has sufficient data to test. Instead of getting people to contribute data you'd be much better off getting a group of people to test their own data. That way there is no issue of sharing confidential information and you get confirmation for several sources.
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#118
09-26-2007, 08:45 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone who plays regularly has sufficient data to test. Instead of getting people to contribute data you'd be much better off getting a group of people to test their own data. That way there is no issue of sharing confidential information and you get confirmation for several sources. [/ QUOTE ] i would like to do this. but i need someone to detail the specific procedure i need to follow.
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#119
09-26-2007, 09:10 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Everyone who plays regularly has sufficient data to test. Instead of getting people to contribute data you'd be much better off getting a group of people to test their own data. That way there is no issue of sharing confidential information and you get confirmation for several sources. [/ QUOTE ] i would like to do this. but i need someone to detail the specific procedure i need to follow. [/ QUOTE ] I will be requesting information for this purpose once we are ready to process it. I believe accepting hand histories from posters at this point is premature. It will take some time to get a team in place that can determine what type of procedures will be implemented. Moreover, I remain uncertain as to exactly what is required. Right now there is a lack of human resources who are coordinated in their efforts, since this idea was created by nineinch just yesterday. First and foremost I want to have integrity, honesty and accuracy as the primary purpose of this endeavor. Otherwise it will be totally useless to all of us. In the interim you got to chill. Either chill, or start posting your resumes.
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#120
09-26-2007, 09:18 PM
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Re: Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged
[ QUOTE ]
do you have a reference distribution anyway? [/ QUOTE ] I don't have a reference distribution. In fact I don't even know what a reference distribution is. It has been thirty years since I studied statistics, and since then I only used a very narrow range of that course as it related to auditing government subsidies. Of course I am assuming that a reference distribution is a statistical/mathematical term; perhaps it is computer geek language.
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