100NL: Value Bet River vs. Nit?

[Kos13]

UTG is ~5/5 and very passive after 55 hands. Do I bet the river, and if so, how much do I bet? Keep in mind stack sizes and the fact that any decent-sized river bet leaves me all but committed to calling a CRAI. Comments welcomed on all streets.

(There were a couple regs at this table, so I have edited the HH enough to hide my identity without changing anything important from the hand.)

Hero (MP1): $111
UTG: $132
UTG+2: covers both

CO posts $0.50
CO posts $1
Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP1)
UTG calls $1, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $1, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, 5 folds, UTG calls $6, UTG+2 calls $6

Flop: ($24) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $17</font>, UTG calls $17, UTG+2 folds

Turn: ($58) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($58) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, HERO has $87 left and is covered by villain

[solvine]

easy bet of $25-30, i doubt he is checking anything that beats u here, but if he does c/r ai then its a fold as you have nearly 60 bbs left and he got lucky u bet again

[pattay]

i def bet, and def not big, probably about half pot

[ncboiler]

I bet the turn. Probably about $25. Check the river if called. I don't like checking the turn and being held to make a river decision against a villain betting his TP. But that's not your question [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I like making a smallish bet here of about $20. It's small enough for TP to call but not so large I can get away from it if CR'ed.

[Fonkey123]

Usually push.

[CalledDownLight]

$38 or $42 on the river.

[pattay]

what about 40?

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
what about 40?

[/ QUOTE ]

I only bet increments of $10 when the bet is $10, 20, 50, or other multiples of $50. Just a thing of mine.

[hielo_uno]

the line i would take here is to bet 38 on the turn. If i get raised, against a nit, i'll just toss my hand, if villain just calls, i can value bet the river. I think this is the best way to play against a nit. Because you knows can find out where you stand in the hand, and get the most value.

[Kos13]

Okay, so I bet like $25 on the river, and he c/r for $50 more (most of my stack). This is a fold like every single time, right? Regardless of the size of the sample, a nit doesn't ever do this with AQ/less, right?