Mixed Strategy Blind Defence (QT with bluff-perfect flop)

[bellatrix]

I think the question is extremely game flow dependent and all three options presented at the end are viable options. It depends more on villains perception of you at the moment. HU with such a hand I peel a lot of hands and can wait to the turn to c/r. As somebody else mentioned in the thread, I c/r if I it something marginal, bottom pair, middle pair, good draw, but even those are not strict guidelines. One thing that I personally don't do that much, perhaps 10-20% of the time is leading into a button PFR, I must have hit something marvelous here or can push him around.

Having said all that these are SH concepts. The paragraph above doesn't apply at all to normal boring Full Ring opponents. I am assuming TAG is a decent player that has some idea of HU play.

On the flop which you posted I can either peel one (not one of your options) -> 20%
c/f -> 50%
c/r -> 20%
Leaves 10% to lead ;-)

[Harv72b]

I know that mathematically there's probably some formula which will prove what the exact right percentages are in this precise scenario. But frankly, I just decide on a whim when the hand comes up. This is also the system I use to decide when to raise with suited rags from EP, what to do when I flop TPWK in an unraised pot, and pretty much everything which doesn't have a clear-cut "correct" play.

If I had to guesstimate, I'd say that I 3bet pre hardly ever (maybe around 2%, but I'm a very tight 3bettor when defending my blind OOP), call pre & lead flop around 20%, call pre & check/raise flop probably 50-ish, and call pre & check/fold flop most of the rest. I will also occasionally throw in the odd call pre & check/call flop with the intentions of spewing on the late streets line, too.

[Oblivious]

No survey?

I pick #2. Youre now out of position with a good player who's prepared for your trickery.

[Oblivious]

ohh, i get why no survey: mixed strategy.

#1 is the second best option and I think I can provide a gametheoretical proof, which basically goes like:

#1 and #4 offer opponent the same odds on the flop, but I think you have more fold equity with line #1.