PNL Study Group Day 3: Pot Size

[Grunch]

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if they're getting the odds to draw, you want them to fold

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Not exactly. If your opponent has a draw and you are made, you don't want them to fold, specifically. You want them to be making a mistake if they continue. The difference is a difference in thought process, and it has both subtle and gross implications on correct strategy.

For example, if your goal is to make them fold as frequently as possible, you should just overbet all-in. This is the ammount that will get the most folds. The problem is that the only hands that will call are the hands that have you crushed, so going all-in is a -EV proposition many times. On the other hand, if you just bet the most that they will call incorrectly a somewhat frequent portion of the time, then that is a very +EV play. Sure it's much higher variance. He's going to suck out far more frequently than if you just overbet push. But low variance != high winrate in no-limit. In fact in this case, they can be quite the opposite.

Note that I'm just talking in general terms, and not responding to any particular hand.