AA: Should I always fear the nuts?

[Synur]

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $50
BTN: $48.75
SB: $39.40
BB: $19.50
Hero (UTG): $48.60

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.50</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.50</font>, BTN calls $3.50, BB calls $3.50

Turn: ($15.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $10.50</font>, BTN calls $10.50, BB folds

River: ($36.25) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)


Villian is a calling station and I'm fairly certain he'll call all his chips away with top pair. Check call on the river or do I value bet?

[Schiester]

Slightly more on drawy flop + turn (pretty pedantic though really). If I'm paying off a calling station I want to make sure he's getting crap odds on each street.

If he's a calling station, please value bet. If you check river you're inducing a bluff which means you have to call him. A check can be negative for two reasons;

1) You're not getting nearly enough value.. river is 'the money'

2) A check is saying you didn't like the 3rd diamond. He's likely to bet big if he has hit or if he hasn't. A crap flush would conceivably more likely call than raise a bet as you've said you don't care about the flush completing... you may have a better flush in their eyes. = pot control

AA is cool, but it also kinda sucks.

[mackthefork]

I would go $2 per flop to cut their odds slightly, flop looks good sizewise, hate to get called 2 ways on this sort of board though especially OOP. Again turn looks good BB must be a berk. River I'd bet 10-15 and flop to a raise, because like you say he's a calling station and he's not likely to come alive without the goods, and he will call down with a lot of other hands that you beat, and also some hands you don't beat that he won't raise with because of the river.

Mack

[CPFB]

With that read, I bet around $20 on the river and stack off if he pushes.

[Jouster777]

Bet more PF = $2

On the flop, multiway+FD+calling station = big RIO = PSB or more

River would be an easy push if we bet more earlier but need to VB here which commits us if he pushes.

[mackthefork]

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With that read, I bet around $20 on the river and stack off if he pushes.

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I don't think that makes a lot of sense, why would you call a raise from a calling station on that board with one pair, also why would you bet such an amount that gives you no choice but to call a push?

Mack

[Micro Donk]

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With that read, I bet around $20 on the river and stack off if he pushes.

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I don't think that makes a lot of sense, why would you call a raise from a calling station on that board with one pair, also why would you bet such an amount that gives you no choice but to call a push?

Mack

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any bet amount is going to force us to call a push, our stack is less than pot

[mackthefork]

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With that read, I bet around $20 on the river and stack off if he pushes.

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I don't think that makes a lot of sense, why would you call a raise from a calling station on that board with one pair, also why would you bet such an amount that gives you no choice but to call a push?

Mack

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any bet amount is going to force us to call a push, our stack is less than pot

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I can't agree with that sorry but if he pushes, provided he is as described, then we will be fairly confident (over 90% sure) that he has made a flush. If thats the case we're not committed with 1 pair.

Mack