Borgata 80-160 AA hand - I get check/raised twice

[DrewOnTilt]

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Hey drew...i was in this game with you. Having played with villian several times, i was sure you were behind. Like you said, he is extremely passive postflop. IMO under no circumstances would he have CR the turn with less than trips. I think the advice given thus far is appropriate for most players, but my read was specific to this one.

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Heh...good game that was. What seat were you in?

[DrewOnTilt]

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Folding is out... it's much closer to a 3-bet. In fact, 3-betting is exactly what you should do unless you are able to strongly discount AQ.


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Hey Eric,

I've always appreciated your feedback. It's good to know that everyone advocates calling down. I did call down, since I forgot how to fold years ago.

Three-betting may be a decent line against a standard LAGgy 80-160 player, but three-betting the specific Villain in question is chip spewery.

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Note that even if you add 66 AND Q9s to his range, you are still a 55% favorite to have the best hand. And that's giving no weight to him playing KQ or a bluff / semi-bluff this way.


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In your equity calculation, you forgot to include the fact that I'm a retarded luck sack, and that I routinely catch runner runner trips to crack bottom set. River 9...6s full of 9s becomes 9s full of 6s! I run so good it's sick. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[elindauer]

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I think 3betting this turn is quite bad.

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You don't exactly give me much to work with here, do you? I'll take a crack though.

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elindauer: 3-betting is exactly what you should do unless you are able to strongly discount AQ.


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Do you disagree with this? This strikes as a purely logical statement, provable mathematically.

If you agree, then how are you discounting AQ so strongly? I read the OP as "I thought I knew this guy, but he's playing really differently right now than normal, I'm not sure what to do". Against that player, shouldn't we play more in the "default" way, waiting to gather information about the villain's tendencies?

Or do you think that even against a tough player, 3-betting AA here would be bad? It seems to me that AQ will be squarely in the range of a solid player at this point.

thanks,
Eric

[danderso8]

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...or if he read a book on poker since the last time I saw him.


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This line, along with you eliminating QQ+ from his range because of the no-cap preflop, made me wonder if possibly JTs or T9s could be in his range. That would give him either an open-ender with the former or a couple of backdoor straight draws with the latter, and probably a backdoor flush draw on this flop.

With JTs, if the second 9 happened to give him four to his suit, he *might* still be able to find a CR on the turn, though I would think the CR here would weigh it heavily toward T9s or 66.

I don't know this specific opponent, but I wonder if someone who fits his description could play this way.

--dan

[DrewOnTilt]

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If you agree, then how are you discounting AQ so strongly? I read the OP as "I thought I knew this guy, but he's playing really differently right now than normal, I'm not sure what to do". Against that player, shouldn't we play more in the "default" way, waiting to gather information about the villain's tendencies?

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That sums up my read on how Villain was playing at the moment fairly accurately.

[PokerBob]

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I think 3betting this turn is quite bad.

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You don't exactly give me much to work with here, do you? I'll take a crack though.

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elindauer: 3-betting is exactly what you should do unless you are able to strongly discount AQ.


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Do you disagree with this? This strikes as a purely logical statement, provable mathematically.

If you agree, then how are you discounting AQ so strongly? I read the OP as "I thought I knew this guy, but he's playing really differently right now than normal, I'm not sure what to do". Against that player, shouldn't we play more in the "default" way, waiting to gather information about the villain's tendencies?

Or do you think that even against a tough player, 3-betting AA here would be bad? It seems to me that AQ will be squarely in the range of a solid player at this point.

thanks,
Eric

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Is a solid player paying off a turn 3bet and a river bet with AQ here?

[elindauer]

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Is a solid player paying off a turn 3bet and a river bet with AQ here?

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I imagine that it would be much easier for a loose player to alter his preflop game, and get tricky postflop then it would be for him to start laying down TPTK. After all, you aren't going to find any books saying you should laydown AQ to a turn 3-bet, but they all say to fold 66 to a UTG raise.

In my mind, it's pretty clear that you can 3-bet aces here and not be exploited (in a game theory sense... if you don't 3-bet aces, what is your 3-bet range?). Just calling them seems to be an attempt to take advantage of this particular opponent. I don't see the part of the player description that lets us do this though... I read the villain description as "villain probably can't make big laydowns, he likely is trying to play well preflop, and I'm not sure how tricky he's playing at the moment". Seems like the "standard" play of 3-betting is the way to go.

It seems like you are saying you wouldn't 3-bet a tough player though... so what hand do you 3-bet a solid player with here? What is your range when you bet the turn? What hands do you fold? I know this is a lot to ask, but I think you'll find that this kind of analysis will prove that just calling aces by default will make it very hard to play our range.

my 2 cents.
eric

[giovanna_rio]

Nice suckout fish cakes ! I saw this hand vs Ricky Williams

[LerkEr]

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call. aq or more likely kk is probably what he has. horrible fold.

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[3rdCheckRaise]

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Nice suckout fish cakes ! I saw this hand vs Ricky Williams

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Shhh...His knees were shaking. He thought it was Lennox Lewis .