The Malloreon: GAME THREAD and FINAL ROLE DESCRIPTIONS

[soah]

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D2, patton has 7 votes, IY has 4, mornelth has 3. patton votes mornelth.

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wasn't this the day that sighing ended up being lynched? i.e. none of this was close to the wire?

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No, sighing was D3.

[soah]

Is patton agreeing that tokyo is wolfy because he expects me to do the exact opposite of whatever he says?

[Patton4]

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wasn't this the day that sighing ended up being lynched? i.e. none of this was close to the wire?

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My first post was at 8:20 in the evening. I was in bad shape I figured because I thought nobody else would be around, so I'd say I was in some danger.

[Patton4]

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Is patton agreeing that tokyo is wolfy because he expects me to do the exact opposite of whatever he says?

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I've been suspicious of Tokyo for awhile... regardless of what you think. You asked the freaking question... specify that I don't answer next time. There is one and only one thing I've been trying to make you all understand.

[soah]

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I find gator's posts pretty wolfy, he never confronted a wolf during his time here. Only some small comments about agreeing with them. He has never been close to right on any of his accusations.

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At one point he had dmk and mornelth listed with one other as his suspects.

Also see his interaction with mornelth D2.

[soah]

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wasn't this the day that sighing ended up being lynched? i.e. none of this was close to the wire?

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My first post was at 8:20 in the evening. I was in bad shape I figured because I thought nobody else would be around, so I'd say I was in some danger.

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Alternate theory: patton believed he was going down, but he knew that voting mornelth over IY would lead us to conclude that IY was evil, and lynch him next, while somewhat clearing mornelth.

[xorbie]

all,

here's how i see things. soah is, in my mind, not lynchable today. i believed madtown generally before, but in all seriousness it's quite easy for him as either evil or as neutral to have peeked liselle and want to fake. think about how sick of a play it would be for him to do this as evil... there's almost no way we lynch him today either.

zurvan has worked through most of the possibilites, and we really don't have too many options. we can try to find the last evil out of:

tabako
traz
zurvan
boiler
trufloridagator

now you will notice some people going after trufloridagator... i can't stress enough how ridiculous this is. he is a villager. i think the last evil (if in that group) is either tokyo, boiler or tabako.

as for cyradis/toth, again i'm not sure. i think patton making his role claim as cyradis made the most sense. madtown might have then come out later to claim liselle when he saw that patton's bs claim wasn't being bought by people. it's also possible patton just came out at first as toth assuming everyone would buy it in the first place. or, again, this is a sick play as the last remaining evil.

what tabako says is also true... right now the village has a +1 advantage in aggregate over evil/neutral. after tonight presumably zero dies, toth is lynch, village has a +2 advantage tomorrow but if we look for the last evil and miss, we end up at a coinflip, meaning if we do find the evil the next day, all the evils/neutral would just coinflip it up and leave us in a neutral wining endgame.

so our chances of winning if we can GAURANTEE lynching toth today are P[finding evil on second day] + .75 P[finding evil on second day]) + .5 P[we don't find the evil]

since there are only maybe four legit candidates, we can put this at about .25 + .25 + .25 = .75 chance of winning. not bad, but this is only if we gaurantee lynch toth.

if you lynch me, village goes to neutral end game automatically. if we lynch patton and he's cyradis, ditto. ditto madtown cyradis.

so i think the correct play is to find someone who is either toth or evil in the most likely scenarios and lynch them.

[Patton4]

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So seeing that Areinitz was Dunkirk, I would like to believe he secretly had some info from Toth that said I'm good. He defended me quite valiantly. IY defended me in a similar fashion, so I really am not feeling IY as evil at this point even though I assereted that at least one of them was trying to get the sympathy "don't vote this guy" routine (Sighing, BobO, and Zurvan all disliked an Areinitz vote FYI). I went back and read the last few pages with the thinking that IY is good. I'm don't have any super strong evidence on any of these guys, but my top baddies...

Sighing (I definitely don't believe he is Cyradis because I don't think he defends himself in the way he is as an invincible character, plus he gives up early today... if he had something to offer the Light side, he wouldn't give up so early and would wait till tomorrow when things are more urgent)
Mornelth (if IY is good, Mornelth has good chance of being bad, they voted each other yesterday)
Boiler (mainly due to his attack on me, but tends to be going after people who most likely wouldn't be lynched today which seems villagerly)

People who scare me
DMK
SOAH (I may be the only one saying this, and unless I missed where he was confirmed or something, I really get nervous when someone is doing as much analysis as he is. I really hope this is his villager game, because if it is, keep on keeping on, SOAH! If Sighing is evil, SOAH would have to be pretty cleared)

Trustworthy
Durron

Won't vote for these people today
Zurvan
Xorbie

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This is my post the day after i survive. I continue to look at both DMK and Morn as suspects.

[soah]

xorbie,

why tabako?

[xorbie]

patton,

seriously. you have dmk listed in your "scary people" section along with soah, you have mornelth listed in your top suspect section with sighing and boiler. it's not exactly unheard of for evils/neutrals to list other evils. i remember that the part in the beggining was what made me really suspect you in the first place... as if toth would ever pass good information to durnitz at that stage (with evils getting owned).