10nl: AJs in position nfd on flop facing all in

[evil_ronnie]

villain is 25/5/1.67 after 20 hands
Is this an easy fold?


Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $6.35
Hero: $15.35
Button: $7.55
SB: $4.45
BB: $2

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $0.2</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $0.8</font>, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($2.45, 3 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG is all-in $5.55</font>

[CaptUnlucky]

Looks like you're a flip at best, assuming he 3bets pf with kk and AA. I fold here.

[Abelardo]

You can call, the only hands that have you in bad shape are sets and perhaps 2 pair, even then you can always cath a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], if he has an overpair or hands that reverse dominate you he's ahead but not by much really, throw in other random one pair or no pair in the mix and you can call.

[Leviathan101]

high varience, but you can probably call here. If it's -ev it's probably not much -ev. Unless you KNOW he only does this with a set and AA, you have at least 12 outs, which is good enough to play here most of the time.
The fact that BB can tag along here sometimes is good for you. Calling here has image bonuses too. you know the whole they flip over TT and you spike a heart. LOL CAN'T FOLD A FLUSH DRAW!

I just thought about it and realized he just bet over twice hte pot. That means for this to be neutral ev you have to win the pot at least 66% of the time... I think you actually have to fold without a read he does this with air.

[Abelardo]

You don't need to at least 66% of the time.

[Leviathan101]

oh? it's exactly 5.55:8 odds to call the shove. not counting rake.

That comes out to aruond 66% if the math in my head is right.

[catfish_01]

Assuming a 2x pot raise, you need to win 40% to break even.

E.G. $2 pot, someone bets $4, if you win 40% of the time and lose 60% the ev calc is:

.4*6-.6*4 = 0 break even

[Leviathan101]

wow I suck at math. Thank you.

[Abelardo]

Ok, so imagine there is no money in the middle, and opponent shoves for 5.55, we need to win at least 50% to break even if we decide to pay the 5.55, now add some money in the middle before the shove and you need even less than 50% to break even.

[catfish_01]

The odds of this call are 9:5.55. To be precise, with a 10% rake,

(.9*9-5.55*(5.55/.9*9+5.55))/10=.58

Which means 58% equity is required to break even.

Edit: Well stars has 5% rake and now something about this formula I made up before is causing me doubt... let me work on this more.