UFC 77 Discussion thread

[dankhank]

igetbadbeat + performify consensus plays = $$$$$

[HoosierAlum]

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Perf's pick went undefeated tonight. MONEYSHOT!!

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[igetbadbeat]

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Perf's pick went undefeated tonight. MONEYSHOT!!

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everyone who posted official plays in this thread went perfect. I hate betcris for removing fight parlays.


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Obviously no time for a long winded writeup, but for what it's worth...

Silva NO PLAY Line is good. Franklin's hand is healed, he knows to avoid the clinch, judges will award him close rounds. (OK, OK... I'll have a little on Silva, but that's because I love the guy, not because the bet is +EV)

Timmah +156 1.5u to win 2.34u. Vera is unexperienced against quality, likely has rust... Timmah has good chin, longer reach, more power, and only 3 rounds to avoid gassing.

Okami -251 1.88u to win .75u. McDonald is a slob in the gas/determination department. A very talented slob, but a slob nonetheless. Okami grinds decision.

Robinson +156 .5u to win .78u.

Belcher +106 .75u to win .8u.




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I got

Anderson Silva 3u to win 1.5u (-200)
Tim Sylvia 1.5u to win 2.4u (+160)
Yushin Okami 1.8u to win .75u (-240)
Alvin Robinson .5u to win .7u (+140)


Silva is better on the feet, hard to control even if you're on top unless you are matt hughes-esque, and he has 5 rounds to finish. I think Rich is in deep water here.

Brandon Vera has all the skills and tools to beat Tim Sylvia...one well placed shot and then a sub could mean the biggest win of his career and a title shot...but I don't see him executing it often enough for him to be that much of a favorite, looks more like 1:1 to me. Some factors would prevent me from betting Sylvia @ 1:1 though.

Yushin Okami - I think he's going to grind out Jason macDonald. MacDonald, IMO, has gotten really lucky with his run in the UFC, i dont think it's gonna continue. Personally I think MacDonald shoulda really focused on his standup, but I dont' think that's what happened.

Alvin Robinson is a beast and I think it will be a good fight.

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[bigalt]

i worry about following perf's picks these days, with the growth of ufcjunkie. are they big enough, and is there enough of a lack of other 'authorities' that he's moving the lines?

Come fight time, the only one I found that hadn't moved in his favour is the sylvia one.

[Viscant]

The Sylvia fight was basically worst case scenario. That was the worst Tim that could have possibly come out. Still a fairly easy win. I expected the fight to go more like round 3 the whole time with Tim stalking and battering. Oh well whatever, it was a win.

Also I wouldn't worry about the lines moving just yet. The public is still very green when it comes to picking MMA. People are betting their hearts way more than their heads; popular fighters are overrated very frequently. Also, judging by how little it seems like the lines move post weighins, it seems like the smart money is a smaller percentage of the money wagered, at least as opposed to how boxing usually works.

I could be wrong, but I think MMA betting will stay juicy for at least a few more months. There's been one or two silly lines on every numbered UFC for the past 5-6 months. I don't see this changing.

[apple11]

Man Rich got owned again I thought silva would win but I thought rich would at least land some decent stuff

[Chilltown]

Heh I gave someone 3 to 1 on the Sylvia fight and they took it. Vera is not a heavyweight and shouldn't be fighting a high caliber heavyweight fighter. His wins were over nobodies and they were a long time ago and the UFC has packed the talent since then. Vera can't knock Sylvia out so I knew Sylvia would at least win with boring jabs/size control...dunno how he got the fight in the first place.

I offered 3 to 1 on the Silva fight and my buddy didn't take it but the results showed why. Franklin is a striker and game over when you fight the worst case scenario Muay Thai fighter. Silva just looked unbeatable. Pretty much taunted Rich with his dance dodging lol.

[igetbadbeat]

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Heh I gave someone 3 to 1 on the Sylvia fight and they took it. Vera is not a heavyweight and shouldn't be fighting a high caliber heavyweight fighter. His wins were over nobodies and they were a long time ago and the UFC has packed the talent since then. Vera can't knock Sylvia out so I knew Sylvia would at least win with boring jabs/size control...dunno how he got the fight in the first place.

I offered 3 to 1 on the Silva fight and my buddy didn't take it but the results showed why. Franklin is a striker and game over when you fight the worst case scenario Muay Thai fighter. Silva just looked unbeatable. Pretty much taunted Rich with his dance dodging lol.

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Give Vera a break, he broke his hand in the first round. he had to block left shots with his right hand...also vera doesn't have to be undersized in the HW division. He coudl EASILY pack on 20-30lbs of muscle...but then he'd never be able to drop down to 205 if he went on a losing streak. All in all I think it was quite apparent that the sylvia line was +EV, especially at +175, but lets disrespect vera.

[21times20]

apparently ufc seems to be indicating a sylvia vs nogueria fight might be next, i know i may have been somewhat insulting earlier in this thread svj, but based on your statement:

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Sylvia beats Nogs 85% of the time. Nog has neither sufficient takedown skill, or a large enough BJJ skill gap to get a tapout within 5x5min rounds.

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what odds are you willing to give me betting on this outcome should the fight go down? i think this is a great opportunity for you svj, because i disagree with you so much that i will let you lay much less chalk than the 5/1 or 6/1 that you think is a fair line for this fight

of course i would like the best odds that i can get, but based on your 85% win rate prediction for sylvia i truly believe that there is a middle ground somewhere that we can agree to

[MikeyPatriot]

Just to toot my own horn:

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Ace may end up on the same path as Rampage. Lose to Silva in the clinch, get a couple wins under your belt, then lose in pretty remarkable fashion. Rampage "knew better" to stay out of the clinch, but he couldn't (and couldn't again against Shogun). Not saying Rich will fall prey to it again, but it's not for certain that he can avoid it either.

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LOL Thai clinch