How awful is this? (pushing trash late in million)

[shefhammer]

I hate myself. 275 left in Sunday million and I decide to do this...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t12000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB (t359124)
UTG (t90600)
UTG+1 (t206950)
MP1 (t453265)
MP2 (t654344)
CO (t310802)
Button (t261137)
Hero (t107934)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t107934</font> and is all-in, BB calls.

Final Pot: t223068

Results - BB won with Q9o


I'd been significantly above average the entire tournament and then hit a wall. No cards for about 40 hands (save 1, which I reraised preflop and the raiser folded) and no great spots to steal or resteal. The average stack was nearly 300K - I didn't want to fall further behind. BB hadn't long been at table so probably didn't have much of a read on me (and I didn't have one on him) but I'd folded every hand for about 40 aside from the one 3 bet all-in, which I didn't have to show.

I didn't want to min raise or 3BB raise as I couldn't call a push and didn't fancy folding after putting in 25% of my stack. So I decided it was raise or fold and I really didn't want to keep folding.

Is this an absolute disaster or just pretty bad? Maybe I'm being results orientated and it's okay? Please let me know,

BTW I'm playing for final table here and am not interested in moving up pay levels. Not sure if that changes anything.

Cheers.

[swede554]

Meh it's not horrible. Someone (I'm too lazy) could do the math here for you if we can assign BB a calling range to see if it's actually +EV to push here or not. It's probably pretty close. Personally though I used to do this a lot, but have taken on a more patient approach lately because w/ 7-9bb's you're short but not crazy desperate just yet.

[shefhammer]

Thanks for that. Am hating myself but am also trying to tell myself it is probably +ev if I did the math as you say.

I'm a little surprised he called with Q9o. I guess maybe against this particular BB the push may be -ev as he has a wider calling range than most but then at the time I didn't know that.

[nbt23]

I'd wait for a better hand...nothing is more annoying than shoving on the BB and getting knocked out. I use to do it but have started being more patient. If I am going to push on the BB I'd rather do it with any ace or connected/suited cards.

[4CardStraight]

So Heres the math:

Pushing 108000 to win 236000 with a pot of 20800

He called with Q9o, so assuming thats about as bad as he calls:

Hand 0: 30.600% 29.91% 00.69% 2427348732 56261058.00 { J2o }
Hand 1: 69.400% 68.71% 00.69% 5576450112 56261058.00 { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, JTo }

So Here he is calling us with 31% of his hands and we are a 70/30 dog.

69% of the time he folds, we win 20800 nets us ~13k
31% of the time he calls, we on ave lose 37k nets us ~-11k

So assuming he calls with top 31% hands this is a thinly +EV push.

If he is clairevoiant, and can see our cards, this is a thinly -EV push. (Jam or Fold, from MOP says J2s needs 8bb or less to open push optimal from sb with a mind reading bb, and needs 4bb or less to push J2o)

So...

No this is not horrible. Most all opponents in the million will call FAR TOO tight for this to be a negative push. That said, with as wide as he DID call you, its only +EV to the tune of 2k chips, and that assumes he calls way too tight (which he likely will) Now assuming you are better than the remaining field, you should probably give your chips a slight edge, and this should be a muck... If you think your about average of those remaining and that the bb is likely of average tightness (ie will call far too tight to a push), then this is a push all day. Honestly if its ME, and i KNOW he would call with Q9o, I would muck. If I expect he folds QTo (like with most players) its an instapush

results wise this isnt terrible really, your 33/66 with blind and ante overlay, you have 78k equity in this pot...