Hitting a bird while golfing

RoundGuy · #1 06-08-2007, 10:15 AM

Yesterday, Rob Lowe of West Wing and Brat Pack fame was playing a Pro-Am tournament in Des Moines. On one of his shots, he hit and killed a Goldfinch in flight (Iowa's state bird).

Lowe: "That's unbelievable. Who comes here and kills the state bird? Only me."

Now, on the news today, someone put the odds of him doing this at 240,000,000 to 1.

Please explain to me how anyone could possibly even begin to put odds on an event like this.

Alex-db · #2 06-08-2007, 10:28 AM

Density of Goldfinchs in golf course air space = y /m^3.
Chance of no finch in a unit area = 1-y
Average shot travels through X m^3 air.

Probability of not hitting finch = (1-y)^X

Would that do it?

oe39 · #3 06-08-2007, 10:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Density of Goldfinchs in golf course air space = y /m^3.
Chance of no finch in a unit area = 1-y
Average shot travels through X m^3 air.

Probability of not hitting finch = (1-y)^X

Would that do it?

[/ QUOTE ]

unit check?

Alex-db · #4 06-08-2007, 11:06 AM

Yeah it was lazy, I was just hoping the theory was communicated, a little.

Siegmund · #5 06-08-2007, 01:27 PM

I would suggest (number of birds reported killed during golfing annually) / (number of rounds of golf played annually), for a starting point.

The first number is quite small, but a bit of googling / trivia book hunting will turn up several previous reports of it. The second number will be some millions per year - I'm sure there are industry statistics.

We aren't told whether the quoted 240,000,000 is for one drive, or one hole, or one round - but it looks like the right ballpark to me for one-drive or one-hole number, a bit too rare for a full round.

Edited to add: the above was for all birds. If you restrict it to specifically goldfinches, that'd make it rarer.

RoundGuy · #6 06-08-2007, 02:48 PM

I guess my thinking went like this:

What are the odds that at that specific moment, on that specific hole, a 1.5" diameter golf ball could be hit at the perfect trajectory to kill a 4" goldfinch (not a robin, or sparrow, or whatever), in-flight, by a nationally known celebrity?

I have no idea why I'm obsessing on this. I just believe the variables are too complex for anyone to give any kind of reasonable probability assessment -- and I think the guy pulled the 240,000,000 number out of his ass.