Quite possibly the stupidest question ever asked here...

[IndyFish]

I just realized I don't know what I'm doing! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Here's the problem: On the flop, say for example I have an OESD with 8 outs. All these probability charts have odds for "2 cards to come" and "1 card to come". 2.2:1 odds for two cards, 4.8:1 for 1 card. If I'm playing limit, even on the flop, shouldn't I always use the 1 card to come odds??? Unless the flop bet puts me all-in I'm still going to have to call a turn bet most of the time for my draw, so it would seem to me that I'm gonna need better than 8/47 = 4.875:1 to call on the flop.
Am I wrong here? Or is this a poker epiphany I'm having [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

PS I realize that this is a probability question, but I thought it was a better fit in this forum.

[OatmealJoe]

If you hit your draw on the turn, you will win more than just what is in the pot. So, even if you are only 4.8:1, you will need to include the amount you will win (implied odds) instead of just what is in the pot in calculating whether to call or not.

[GMan42]

You are correct in using the one-card-to-come odds (although previous poster is correct in that you should estimate your implied odds in figuring what your pot odds really are to call).

The two-card odds are frequently used in figuring out your pot equity, which is useful in decisions on whether it's worth "pumping the pot" with a big draw based on how many callers your raise might get. Read Small Stakes Hold'em for more info on this.

[IndyFish]

Thank you. Believe it or not, I am almost through SSHE for the first time. This two-cards-to-come confusion started when I read "Winner's Guide to Low Limit Hold'em" by Ken Warren. (Before I got SSHE). I'm trying to digest SSHE, but obviously it's so full of info it's gonna take re-reading 100 times to figure it all out.

I think your post about pot equity just cleared that concept up though. If I understand this right, an OESD has roughly 30% pot equity (2.2:1). So if there are 3+ other players in the hand, it is worth pumping the pot. And two or less you just want to draw as cheaply as possible?

[bruin]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your post about pot equity just cleared that concept up though. If I understand this right, an OESD has roughly 30% pot equity (2.2:1). So if there are 3+ other players in the hand, it is worth pumping the pot. And two or less you just want to draw as cheaply as possible?


[/ QUOTE ]

yep

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

I think your post about pot equity just cleared that concept up though. If I understand this right, an OESD has roughly 30% pot equity (2.2:1). So if there are 3+ other players in the hand, it is worth pumping the pot. And two or less you just want to draw as cheaply as possible?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's a reasonable starting point, but there are some other factors to consider:

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] You might have ways to win without hitting your straight. You may have other outs, or your hand may win unimproved.

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] You might make your straight, but lose to a flush or full house or higher straight, or tie someone else. The possibility of other straights is particularly dangerous when you are only using one card.

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Trying to pump the pot may change the number of players involved. Sometimes it is better to call to keep more people in rather than to raise.

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Raising when you don't quite have the equity to justify raising for value may decrease the amount you have to pay on the turn.

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Displaying aggression before you hit may affect the amount you get paid off after you hit. Sometimes it increases the amount you get paid, and sometimes it decreases it.

[IndyFish]

Thank you all for the help! It's nice to see people willing to help out the newbies. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]