#1
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mo\' outs, mo\' problems - 200nl
ok, feel free to berate me on every street
i called pf hoping to induce call behinds (not agg table, so not afraid of squeeze) i raise the flop expecting folds usually, i get called, and on the turn i pick up 3 more outs..... now if we assume villain is ahead... say w/ an overpair, then my equity just went down, since on the flop i have 9+9=18 outs till the river, but on the turn i only have 9+3=12 outs (ignoring boats, trips, and villain's 2 outer) but the pot is bigger, so should i push w/ my 24% equity, or just check behind? i really don't need folds very often to break even...... but villain is getting 1:2 so he's not folding very often (ever?) after calling the flop check behind or push the turn? what if turn were 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? villain is taggy, no reads: Poker Stars No Limit Hold'em Cash Game $1/$2 Blinds 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter) SB: $343.70 BB: $107.55 UTG: $204.85 keikiwai (MP): $217.85 CO: $202.00 BTN: $197.00 Preflop: keikiwai is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players) <font color="red">UTG raises to $8.00</font>, keikiwai calls $8.00, 2 folds, SB calls $7.00, BB calls $6.00 Flop: ($32) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 Players) SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $20.00</font>, <font color="red">keikiwai raises to $66.00</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls $46.00 Turn: ($164) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) UTG checks, <font color="red">keikiwai????</font> Villain has $131 left |
#2
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Re: mo\' outs, mo\' problems (bigger pot fewer problems?) 200nl
free card please.
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#3
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Re: mo\' outs, mo\' problems - 200nl
Push, the paired flop might lead him to be calling you a little light, suspecting you of a move. You can fold out all club overs with a push, these guys would stack you if you hit. Probably not folding any high pairs, but there are a lot fewer of them. You only need to fold him out 20% of the time for this to be +EV. |
#4
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Re: mo\' outs, mo\' problems - 200nl
I would need some sort of read here to bet. Until proven otherwise, I assume villain isn't folding any overpair here ever.
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#5
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Re: mo\' outs, mo\' problems - 200nl
i like shoving
i like checking if you shove it will probably convince him you have the 7. whereas, checking might make it a bit more obvious if you hit your draw (unless you hit the 9) i also think your fold equity is higher than you realize here. youve played it very strong on the flop. and a shove here would pretty much look precisely like a 7 imo. plenty of villains fold overpairs here *gasp* im not saying this villain would, but they do sometimes. plus you never know what other garbage he might be holding. he could be on a draw himself, or have been stubborn on the flop with 88/99. still, a free card is nice. |
#6
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Re: mo\' outs, mo\' problems - 200nl
i'd float the flop i think, its a little too blank and when called you dont know if he can fold an overpair. then you can raise the turn all in or something.
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#7
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Re: mo\' outs, mo\' problems - 200nl
[ QUOTE ]
i'd float the flop [/ QUOTE ] |
#8
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Re: mo\' outs, mo\' problems (bigger pot fewer problems?) 200nl
pf is fine once in a while. id fold the flop though.
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#9
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Re: mo\' outs, mo\' problems - 200nl
-push
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#10
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Re: mo\' outs, mo\' problems - 200nl
[ QUOTE ]
i'd float the flop i think, its a little too blank and when called you dont know if he can fold an overpair. then you can raise the turn all in or something. [/ QUOTE ] If we don't know if he can fold an overpair, and therefore don't raise on flop, why would we want to raise on turn? |
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