What changes will we see to the poker world because of the new laws?

[MEbenhoe]

Fnord suggested this as a topic in the suggestions thread and I think its a great idea.

With the new laws and the ever more restrictive environment of online poker to U.S. residents how do you feel this will effect you personally and the poker world as a whole?

Personally, for the time being I consider myself done with online poker until things become more clear, and it is possible that I have played my last hand of online poker for money. This has caused me to look more into local games/possibly running some games out of my apartment/going to the B&M casinos more (although this is hard given the closest one is an hour away, and the closest quality card room is 2 1/2 hours away).

For the poker world as a whole, I think this is a huge hit. It's pretty obvious that the numbers at the WSOP this year are going to take a huge hit because of this, and if numbers continue to sink you could see ESPN eventually drop coverage of the event which would be a huge publicity hit for poker. This is probably unlikely, but could be a long-term effect. Live cash games will probably see a short-term influx in numbers though as more people seek different opportunities to play. The local games in my area have had a very large increase in turnout recently. Whether this is due solely to the more restrictive environment of online play, or some other factors are involved too is difficult to say.

There's many areas I'm not covering as there is just so much to cover, but what are others thoughts/concerns/etc?

[Kneel B4 Zod]

the online industry will be mostly blown up in 12 months time, not only in the US but also in Europe.

the US is going to make it very difficult for players to deposit/withdraw (as is already happening) and many European countries will do the same (France is very close already). now, regulation is happening in some places like England and Italy and Sweden, but this is the minority stance.

in 24-36 months times, I think regulation/taxation is likely to occur in some of the areas that ban (like the US and France). however, right now it's easier for countries to completely stop the industry, instead of making intelligent, well thought out regulations.

online poker in some form is here to stay, but the boom years have past in the US and may never *fully* hit Europe as it did here.

live games will continue to prosper, simply b/c millions of people have been exposed to the game very recently, and there will be a need to play legal, safe poker, that online poker may not be able to fill.

[Dids]

My thoughts:

Most of the targets of the laws passed have been sports betting and poker's caught in the crossfire. This makes me think that there's some way for online poker to continue to be viable, but it will take some time.

I think you'll see a near collapse, and then with some legwork from folks with a vested financial interested, a rebirth. I have no idea how this exactly will happen, but it just seems like there's too much money involved for it not to.

It's going to mean that a lot of college dropout rakeback pros have to grow up and get real jobs, and the smart kids who've been making money off of poker will hopefully use their damn-smartness to do something a little more useful.

[mlagoo]

I know that people like myself (marginal winners that never really excelled at the game) will be very negatively effected, and will have to drop down. Which is a bummer. Which of course will ultimately mean that the lower limit games will eventually become harder as well, etc.

It's so frustrating because we KNOW, without a doubt, because of, ya know, anecdotal evidence spread over the last few years, that there are TONS of fish just itching to get their money on these sites... and they'll never do it, because they now think it's illegal to do so, and even if they didn't think that, they can't even figure out how to get the money online anymore anyway.

I really feel like the biggest hit isn't going to be for the nosebleed stakes guy, or any of the guys who have managed to make a killing over the past few years in online poker. It's going to be for the lower-volume, marginal winners who are still sort of learning, because the online poker landscape is going to be such that they're just going to get crushed at any decent stakes.

[Coffee]

I think that the online game will pretty much wither and die, simply because neither side of the political aisle has a) a vested interest, or b) a moral compulsion to reverse the ban. I think that the ban is too much of a trophy for conservatives, who can argue their ability to stand up for traditional values, or liberals, who can argue their ability to protect the children, to reverse it.

Of course, the end result will be the eventual proliferation of illegal cardrooms throughout the nation, because the public's appetite has clearly been whetted to playing poker. It is a social function that can easily fill an evening, and can even result in the average person winning money, even if they don't usually. The problem is, the same morality police that argued for the ban will then argue for the continued shutdown of the cardrooms and confiscation of the capital involved.

The short answer is it will most likely do what other prohibitions on vice do...create criminals out of citizens.

[guids]

I personally think, after next sunday (superbowl), there will be a mass exodus of sportsbooks, and subsequently poker sites, at least allowing US players use of the software. IMO, the DOJ/govt just wants to keep the money/games/bookies in the country, like the old days, because they can keep a much better eye on it, and there is less ways for the real criminals to abuse gambling (ie, a terrorist cant launder money through a local, illegal bookie). Maybe 5 years from now, though, harrahs etc, will be running online sites, but I dont know. Personally, Im expecting to make a ton of money this year due just to the legislation, through things like mbenhoe said in his OP.

[El Diablo]

M,

I agree it's an important topic. Important enough to many of us here that even though there are forums (Legislation) to discuss this stuff in depth, having as broad a discussion as possible about what's going on is beneficial for everyone who plays poker. Perhaps some people will be able to contribute thoughts/ideas here that can be delved into in greater depth in the legislation forum.

Anyway, I'll offer my thoughts on this question a little later, but I did want to toss out a ray of light here.

If regulated online gambling run by casinos or Indian tribes or whatever organization gets legalized in the US, online poker will exist at a level that makes the last couple of years look like nothing. Seems like that is the direction a lot of these actions will lead us toward. I just don't have any real idea of guessing a timeframe for this.

[PartyGirlUK]

El Diablo,

could you expand on your statement. I'm somewhat ignorant in this area and dont understand why it would have such an effect (as I guessed that anyone who wanted to play online up til now wouldnt have found the various obstacles too dissuading).

Dean

[guids]

[ QUOTE ]
El Diablo,

could you expand on your statement. I'm somewhat ignorant in this area and dont understand why it would have such an effect (as I guessed that anyone who wanted to play online up til now wouldnt have found the various obstacles too dissuading).

Dean

[/ QUOTE ]



There is an air of illegitimacy still associated with online poker, there always was. You have Harrahs and the other big companies doing the PR work (TV!, Billboards, etc), there are going to be tons of people who start playing. Instead of seeing poker on TV during only the espn/travel/etc shows, you are going to see constant commercials, radio promo's etc. Even people who dont gamble still sometimes play the lottery, I think it will be equivalent to that.

[Thremp]

When big US companies open up and the gov't starts taking their dollars, sports betting and poker will be huge industries.


Also sadly sports betting is where people are able to wash vast sums of money and move it offshore. And the mob uses online sports betting or so I've heard. Sad thought since sports betting is much larger than poker.