JJ - Going overboard with the defensive turn check?

[waffle]

Villian is SB and 42/27/1.8/48

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (5 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: (5 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls.

1 - I thought his range after his preflop coldcall had a lot of kings
2 - I didn't want to bet/fold the turn
3 - I didn't want to bet/call the turn
4 - I might induce a bluff from a hand that was going to fold to the turn

On the other hand..
1 - Maybe I'm overestimating the hands that he's folding here and missing value
2 - Maybe his turn check/raising range is far enough from optimal that bet/calling the turn is best

Thoughts?

[Scary_Tiger]

I think you should bet/fold the turn. Pocket pairs and tens are apt to call down, and occasionally he'll have something like a gutshot too.

[Nick C]

Well, hmm. Probably bet-folding will cost you the pot more frequently than it'll save it for you. (You will get checkraised by a T sometimes, I think, and occasionally by a draw.) Meanwhile, with AJ/AQ I think Villain will call more often than he'll fold.

You will induce some river bluffs with your check, as well as some value bets with Tx.

The situation seems read-based to me, and our read is somewhat tentative. In general, if you're bet-folding the turn here I'm thinking it should be because you think (1) a checkraise from a worse hand is unlikely, and also you think that (2) Villain won't bet or pay off with ace-high on the river even after you check the turn or (3) you think he's going to pay off with a worse hand and plan to bet the turn and the river.

Your line seems okay to me. If you're betting the turn, I'm thinking that in this case it should generally be with the idea of betting again on the river.

Meanwhile, if your opponent seemed like a big LAG instead, I'd be thinking about a bet-call.

[sonartec]

I really think the stakes you are playing are very important in this hand, i really think you need to bet this turn. If you are raised well personally i think from a guy with these stats its an easy call down. Maybe even three gig the turn and take a free show down.

[El Ishmael]

Bet the turn and prob. call down a raise.

[ninenine_zoe]

[ QUOTE ]
I really think the stakes you are playing are very important in this hand

[/ QUOTE ]

i think so too. b/c the LAGs at 5/10 are maybe more thinking than the .5/1. waffle is in the 5/10-boat...
for the hand:
i play it the same. im not good in bet/folding this turn. he can pop you with a T, with a FD+OC or any kind of a straight-draw. the free card could be scary and the check might be bad, but as said im not good in bet/folding (but im more in the 1/2-boat with horrible non thinking LAGs and would maybe take a bet/call-line [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] )

[rigoletto]

I think the pot is big enough that you shouldn't give a free card! In addition: when he just calls the turn bet you have en easy river value bet.

[Redd]

I'm with Nick; I'd check here or bet-call if he's a really big LAG or trickster.

I don't want to bet-fold, not too many draws to give a freebie to, you might scare him off an ace. I guess a typical opponent with those numbers will bluff-c/r often enough to make a bet-fold bad, but rarely enough to justify to inducing a c/r-call (IMO).

[waffle]

5/10

[jba]

bet the turn. call down or fold, that depends on who this is.