JJ facing heat, $200 NL

djj6835 · #1 11-13-2007, 01:31 AM

Villain is madskillz609, 16/13/4 over about 900 hands.
Don't really have any reads relevant to this hand. On the flop I don't think he shows up with a five here but he could have 66. I think he is also capable of having air sometimes and maybe something like 78. He could also have a smaller overpair as well as QQ+ although most people don't like flatting a hand like QQ oop.

The turn is where I kind of get stuck because I think there is a chance he is continuing a bluff/semibluff on this card even though it realistically shouldn't concern me.

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $200
CO: $197
Button: $208.95
SB: $60.35
BB: $191

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero raises to $7, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($15, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $11, BB raises to $34, Hero calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($83, 2 players)
BB bets $50 Hero ???

Jshuttlesworth · #2 11-13-2007, 01:35 AM

if I call this flop (and I might not given that it's rainbow), I think I would have to call river b/c he will always use the A to try to push you off IMO but he never really has an A here.

ofishstix · #3 11-13-2007, 01:36 AM

its prolly spewy, but i would call here then fold most rivers if he 3 barrels for a decently sized bet. There aren't many aces in his range, nor are there too many 5s. 66 is really the only scary hand here so I'd just go with that read.

dukemagic · #4 11-13-2007, 01:38 AM

any chance he is bluffing the flop with AK or something? i'll checkraise occasionally on paired flops when i know the opponent cbets a lot. you called when he didn't expect you to, and then he hit his hand on the turn... it's a possibility anyways.

i'd prolly fold here, personally. not much you beat except a pure bluff.

h_ven · #5 11-13-2007, 01:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop I don't think he shows up with a five here but he could have 66. I think he is also capable of having air sometimes and maybe something like 78. He could also have a smaller overpair as well as QQ+ although most people don't like flatting a hand like QQ oop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You just put this 16/13 on almost everything in those 3 sentences.

Anyways, I'm folding to his turn bet, but what do I know, I'm a nit?
There's also a good chance he thought you may have been c-betting and tried to steal the pot on the flop with Ax.

jk3a · #6 11-13-2007, 01:41 AM

Really interesting spot IMO. I agree I don't think he has a 5 hardly ever. I prob. 3ball the flop and call a shove because I think people stack off 88-TT here quite a bit. I actually fold as played. It's really not fair to eliminate 5x from his range AND put 78s in it.

That said, if we put 87s in his range, it makes it an easier fold because he then can have 5x. The turn REALLY helps define his range. He's almost never betting QQ-KK here and is likely not good enough to turn 6x-TT into a bluff. I think his turn range is now something like 5x/87s/66/air. Without significant history, I think you can fold here.

h_ven · #7 11-13-2007, 01:43 AM

I don't think a 16/13 is going to stack off here with with 88-TT IMO.

Btw, what was your image at the table? If you where playing something like 25/20 that session, the I'd 3-bet the flop and call a shove. But, if you where playing tighter I'd have to fold.

djj6835 · #8 11-13-2007, 01:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Btw, what was your image at the table? If you where playing something like 25/20 that session, the I'd 3-bet the flop and call a shove. But, if you where playing tighter I'd have to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like 24/20 or something along those lines.

jk3a · #9 11-13-2007, 01:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think a 16/13 is going to stack off here with with 88-TT IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is obv. image/opponent dependent. I've played quite a bit with OP and he def. has an image that would allow him to stack 88-TT. That said, some 16/13s will instafold those hands to a 3bet and others will snap shove. In general though, we are likely to be ahead after he c/r this flop.

djj6835 · #10 11-13-2007, 01:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It's really not fair to eliminate 5x from his range AND put 78s in it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's why I said maybe 78 but I didn't think it was as likely as a bunch of other hands. Fives in his range would be like 56s or 54s and I'm not sure he plays 56 this fast. I do think 78s is at least somewhat more likely than 54s.