Three barrels?

[slamhound]

Villain was on my left on two tables, and the BB on my button was also the same. BB had a folded to steal of 75% so I was raising a ton from the button. Villain had a really low WTSD (under 30), but was pretty aggro PF. Not really sure with the board texture here, but I think it's correct? Anyone give up on the river?

5/10 Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (<font color="#0000cc">$257.00</font>)
CO (<font color="#0000cc">$335.60</font>)
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$257.50</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$411.25</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$1970.00</font>)

Pre-flop: (1.5 SB, 5 players) Hero is BTN Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#777777">2 folds</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, <font color="#777777">1 fold</font>, Hero calls

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7.0 SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, SB calls

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5.5 BB, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, SB calls

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7.5 BB, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>

[mattnxtc]

If villain makes it to the river...that river card isnt going to scare him away. I think you waste a bet on this river.

[johnnyrocket]

this is absolutely awful, 3 barrels can be fired when scare cards come, not when blanks come if they call the flop and turn. Why would he ever fold when a 5d hits getting 8.5BB

[slamhound]

You guys don't think a player w/a WTSD of under 30 in a superaggro 5-max game will make a bad fold w/T/J+gutter or an underpair enough of the time? I thought it was close, maybe not.

No issues with the flop raise, right?

[mattnxtc]

If he makes it that far he will be getting 8.5-1...he will make this call with any ace or and most jacks or 10s...its not that close

[Hobbs.]

sample size on stats?

[maxter]

I don't think the flop raise is that bad if we believe he's folding a pocket pair smaller than the board.

Assuming 44+,A6s+,ATo+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs (probably wider) he'll have 44-99 about 20% of the time.

Our hot-and-cold equity in this flop is 30%, lets assume we win 25% of the time and 0BB implied odds (due to flop 3-bets with better hands obviously, he will rarely try to c/r the turn wich will be a disaster), and he's folding 44-99 to a flop raise + turn bet.

The pot will be 4BB (discounting 0,5BB rake) and we invest 2BB in our line. I assume he always peel the flop.

EV = 0,20*4BB + 0,80*(0.25*4BB + 0.75*(-2BB)) = 0.80 - 0.40 = 0.40BB

Enough overlay for our semibluff IMO, but if conditions change it could be a close play (if I made the math correctly :P)

I wouldn't 3-barrel the river. If we assume he has TT+,A6s+,A9o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs (taking out 44-99)we have 0% equity and I don't think he's folding weak pairs enough. I'll give up.

P.S. Yeah, first post. Long time lurker [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]