50NL - AQs with a big draw on the flop

Galwegian · #1 09-30-2007, 12:10 PM

SB and MP1 are both a little loose whereas MP2 is quite tight (preflop anyway). Is preflop call ok? Call/raise on the flop? All in standard when I am reraised? (Note that I'm playing an effective stack of $36)

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($30)
SB ($22)
BB ($77.20)
UTG ($20)
UTG+1 ($45.75)
MP1 ($36.05)
MP2 ($49.50)
Hero ($72.50)
CO ($10)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, MP2 raises to $2, Hero calls $2, 2 folds, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50.

Flop: ($10) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 bets $4, MP2 folds, Hero raises to $10.5, SB raises to $20 (All-In), BB folds, MP1 calls $16, Hero raises to $81 (All-In), MP1 calls $14.05 (All-In).

Final Pot: $98.10

Chargers In 07 · #2 09-30-2007, 12:15 PM

Preflop depends on his numbers. If he's like 10/2 this is a fold preflop otherwise it's fine and I 3-bet this hand alot.

On the flop, raise more when you raise. You're not getting much, if any, fold equity by raising only $6.50 more into this pot. Raise to $16 and proceed from there. Take free card on turn if he offers it.

Specialwon · #3 09-30-2007, 12:50 PM

As a rule I'm not keen on the pf call, you are setting yourself up to be squeezed out or dominated (you can't call any further raises pf imo). Would you play any other suited A like this immediately after a raise with so many players left to act?

As it turns out, 5 to the flop is great, maybe you had a read on the guys behind you or something.

On the flop I'm with Chargers, bet the pot / call any raise. You reall want to take this hand down now, at best you have 12 outs and probably only 9 so bet like you mean it.

OK as played but I think you were a little lucky that things worked out as they did.

Galwegian · #4 09-30-2007, 01:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop depends on his numbers. If he's like 10/2 this is a fold preflop otherwise it's fine and I 3-bet this hand alot.

On the flop, raise more when you raise. You're not getting much, if any, fold equity by raising only $6.50 more into this pot. Raise to $16 and proceed from there. Take free card on turn if he offers it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just wonder if I actually want a lot of fold equity here. I have 12 outs to the nuts and the three other aces could be good as well. I could easily have the best hand on the flop. If that is the case, I don't want him to fold - I just want to get a free card on the turn.

Specialwon · #5 09-30-2007, 02:14 PM

Sorry, I was a bit cursory earlier. Your aces would be good perhaps half of the time, so allow 1 or 2 outs for that.

It's likely that a couple of the flush outs are dirty (Ks certainly is). So I would count it as, say, 11 clean outs here.

I seriously doubt you have the best hand on the flop given the number of callers. So, I would still play this as fast as poss.

Galwegian · #6 09-30-2007, 02:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I was a bit cursory earlier. Your aces would be good perhaps half of the time, so allow 1 or 2 outs for that.

It's likely that a couple of the flush outs are dirty (Ks certainly is). So I would count it as, say, 11 clean outs here.

I seriously doubt you have the best hand on the flop given the number of callers. So, I would still play this as fast as poss.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. But I think you're a bit pessimistic about the flush outs. The Ks is possibly no good (but is still good against a lot of possible villain holdings such as aces, AK, etc) - but how exactly can any other spade not be good? Any other spade apart from the K gives me the absolute nuts. So giving me 1 or 2 outs for my aces, that makes 12 or 13 outs on the flop.

I take your point about the number of callers, but raising to $10.50 is hardly playing it slow

oakrdrzfan · #7 09-30-2007, 05:47 PM

Calling a raise with AQs against a quite tight player isnt something I do, but knowing how tight would give me a little more to comment on. If he plays straight forward, I might call. You do have position, but there are still others to act.

As played, if you are raising the flop, then make it bigger. You are committing so will get it all in if someone pops you.

At first, i wondered if calling would be ok giving the flop checkers a chance to come in as well. Anyone have thoughts on that? Too nitty?

I put a range of hands for 2 villains on Pokerstove. Hero would be ahead of this somewhat loose range.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.422% 41.03% 00.40% 477900 4617.00 { AsQs }
Hand 1: 29.289% 27.10% 02.19% 315678 25498.50 { KK, TT, 66, AKs, KQs, QJs, 9s8s, 8s7s, AKo, KQo, QJo }
Hand 2: 29.289% 27.10% 02.19% 315678 25498.50 { KK, TT, 66, AKs, KQs, QJs, 9s8s, 8s7s, AKo, KQo, QJo }

Against a tighter range, here are the results.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.463% 32.17% 00.30% 70586 648.00 { AsQs }
Hand 1: 15.130% 14.83% 00.30% 32552 648.00 { KK, TT, 66, AKs, QJs, 9s8s, 8s7s, AKo, QJo }
Hand 2: 52.406% 52.41% 00.00% 114995 0.00 { KK, TT, 66 }

Even against the tighter range, it looks like we are getting the correct odds to get it all in here given the money already in the pot.

Specialwon · #8 10-01-2007, 08:59 AM

The board pairing would be bad for you. I was thinking about a running pair on turn and river or something like that. But, I too take your point, perhaps I am painting it too black.

threads13 · #9 10-01-2007, 09:35 AM

I think this is a fold preflop as others have alluded.

I could see just calling here on the flop given your read. It depends how loose they really are. The point being that you don't have as much fold equity against a loose opponent, but you have good implied odds. If you want to raise the flop then I like a push better. A push to 30 isn't even a 1.5x raise so I think the risk-reward ratio is good.