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#2
11-16-2007, 12:04 PM
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Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Yes he does bet strong draws [/ QUOTE ] I still think it's a call, if he doesn't bet draws then I would have said 3 bet. [/ QUOTE ] I think you misread. He lead out on the river, I raised, and he 3 bet. You're suggessting capping second nut straight against a fairly solid regular? 
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#3
11-16-2007, 12:07 PM
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Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
I see a lot of people telling me to fold the turn. Why? Its a completely rainbow board and the only hand that could potentially have me crushed on the river is QJ if i hit the high end of my straight.
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#4
11-16-2007, 12:12 PM
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Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Yes he does bet strong draws [/ QUOTE ] I still think it's a call, if he doesn't bet draws then I would have said 3 bet. [/ QUOTE ] I think you misread. He lead out on the river, I raised, and he 3 bet. You're suggessting capping second nut straight against a fairly solid regular? [/ QUOTE ] I missread it, still a call though
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#5
11-16-2007, 12:15 PM
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Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
To those who don't call the turn:
There are 5 people seeing the flop ("a few" thus two in front of us, hero himself, and the blinds), for 5 SB or 2.5 BB. When the SB bets the turn, there are two callers, so we're getting 5.5:1 for an 8-outer. I'll call those odds any day... Heck, even if you make the 9 only a partial 3-outer since there is a chance that someone's got exactly QJ, then the odds are STILL good, especially counting implied odds.
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#6
11-17-2007, 01:13 PM
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Re: $3/$6 B&M face tough river decision
I'd fold 87 preflop. If it were suited, I'm definitely calling, though, since suited connectors play well multiway.
Lead flop. You have a double gutshot in a large, limped field. Bet for value. Turn looks good. If your read is really this good on the river, then it's a fold. You're getting 11.5:1 and would need to be getting 20:1+ to make this a profitable call when he has the nuts 95% of the time. I do question whether a read could ever be this good, though. And if there's even just a 3.7% margin of error in your read (i.e., if Bob only has the nuts 91.3% of the time instead of 95% of the time), then it could be a profitable call...
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