AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?

[Ontario_Tory]

These late / v. deep decisions give me trouble...

23 people left in the $10 20k tourney on Stars.

Villain hasn't been stealing like crazy. Can I fold this? I fold I'm left with ~250k chips - about average, and 25 BB's

If the answer is yes, I can fold - how small does my stack need to be for a fold to be out of the question? 150k? 100k?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t10000 (7 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t88240)
SB (t200986)
BB (t759452)
UTG (t117934)
Hero (t286278)
MP2 (t337451)
CO (t498055)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t40000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t280000</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

[r987r]

i beat him into the pot nh

[Pokerfarian]

I wouldn't consider folding with 200K or less, since then I'd need &lt;=40% equity to make the call. I'd call here as well.

[ssnyc]

with your read I can't see ever folding here

[loosemmjan]

Hero's read is that villain is reasonable. Hero made a 4x raise indicating a strong hand that didn't want a call. Villain responded by saying let's play for stacks.

Hero is never ahead in this spot based on Hero's read.

Villains range (1010+, AK+)

Hero folds because there is no sense in flipping at this point in the tourney.

The only reason I will change my mind is if Hero had been active giving villain a reason to think that Hero is fos.


obtw Why the 4x raise?

~loose

[bucktotal]

raise less pf.

[ssnyc]

[ QUOTE ]

Hero's read is that villain is reasonable. Hero made a 4x raise indicating a strong hand that didn't want a call. Villain responded by saying let's play for stacks.

Hero is never ahead in this spot based on Hero's read.

Villains range (1010+, AK+)

Hero folds because there is no sense in flipping at this point in the tourney.

The only reason I will change my mind is if Hero had been active giving villain a reason to think that Hero is fos.


obtw Why the 4x raise?

~loose

[/ QUOTE ]

my bad...that's two i've misread...too tired I guess...must be why I keep losing all these races [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] fatigue!

[Ontario_Tory]

what's wrong with a 4 X BB initial raise?

I vary my initial PF raise between 3 and 4 bb's in a pretty random fashion. This one happened to be 4.

I thought that 4 X BB was the new 3... Am I wrong on that?

OT

[ssnyc]

I think 2.5 is in vogue...raise less and do it more often...decide what to do it reraised on case by case

[Sherman]

With 28 BBs effective, I'd make it 25K to go PF, but making is 40K really isn't that big of a deal.

As played, we have two options:

1) Call all-in. So, we simply need to calculate our equity against villain's hand range. Then figure out how much it costs us and if we are getting the right price (our remaining stack : our remaining stack + the money in the pot already).

Or

2) Fold.

Seems pretty easy to me. Just run the numbers.

So...we have to call 246K to win 301K (1.22:1). So we need about 45% equity against his hand range (probably a little less b/c I don't know what the antes are and didn't include them).

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.106% 38.23% 11.88% 25529440 7931059.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 49.894% 38.02% 11.88% 25388298 7931059.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.785% 23.66% 16.13% 10936805 7456889.50 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 60.215% 44.09% 16.13% 20381624 7456889.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

So yeah, depending on his range, I'd say it's pretty close. With antes this might be a shove even if his range is JJ+,AK+.

Sherman