$6 FO Party - Flopped top two

[dlwbppd]

I'd have called, expecting to see A10, AQ or AK.

[Markuzi]

Maybe you can explain why.

[dlwbppd]

Sorry was in a rush to get somewhere and didn't have time (probably should have held of posting till now).

Preflop:-
I dont think she would limp UTG with a big PP (10s +) with those stack sizes. I reckon she would raise to around 2.5BB's hoping for a shove from MP2 (M of 4.8) or perhaps a resteal attempt from onf of the late position larger stacks.

Assuming they're a good player they know that an UTG limp with a couple of short stacks in MP is a dangerous move without a hand good enough to call an all in with. This show of strength is likely to deter any steals. A small raise UTG however, could always be seen as an attempt to represent a big hand in order to steal, which is more likely to get a shove/reraise that she would want with a big pocket pair.

I reckon that mid pocket pairs are a possibility for limping in this situation (say 6's - 9's).

AK-A10 are all possible for limping with, in the hope of a limper in MP/LP stacking off with a smaller A.

Anything else like KQ, 67s etc. I reckon she'd toss or raise with in an attmpt to steal.

On the flop:-
With an A on the flop she'd not going to min raise your bet with anything but top pair, two pair or a set, so we can disregard any middle pairs she might have limped with.

The min raise here doesn't mean too much other than she has an ace or a set IMO. I think she'd bet the set like this to stop MP3 chasing an OESD. That leaves her range at (AK, AQ, AJ, A10 or 88).

After you reraise I think she'd throw away AJ, but keep AK and AQ. Reason for this being is she can put you on AQ, not wanting to run into her (possible) AK preflop so you didn't raise, but she cant put you on AK, as you would have had to reraise preflop.

If she had pocket 8's I reckon she'd call here, and try to get all the chips in on the turn with a reraise. Shes pushed off MP3 from any draws he may have had so there's no reason to reraise now as she almost certainly has the best had and doesn't want to scare you away.

So now the only hands she's worried about you having is 88 or (assuming she's holding AK or AQ)A10. She decides to push because she reckons that her show of strength throughout this hand will make you fold anything but a set, since you'll still have a significant amount of chips left to play with if you fold.

So the only cards I can see her playing this way is AK,AQ or A10.

We also need to take into consideration that the bubble has just been burst, so people will be playing very aggresively until the next bubble approaches.

So I think a calls the right move.

All that said though, I reckon I would have folded aswell. Reason being it's fine to pick and analyze every part of a hand after it's been played, but I couldn't do it in anywhere near this depth in 15 seconds. I'd interpet that last be as a set, maybe A10 and lay it down. It's only after the hand had finished would I be able to rethink it through and hopefully learn for next time [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Markuzi]

dlwbppd, ty for your thoughts!

IMO the hand is difficult because she made the 4-bet. I still think that a solid player would probably toss AK or AQ there. We're talking a little over average stacks here and I think it would be stupid to go broke with just TPTK or TP2K.

Think your definitly right about 88 calling the 3-bet to get it allin on the turn.

Wish I had more time to decide... for me the hand was too complicated to decide within 20 secs. Nice insights from you guys here though.

[donquay]

I would've expected villain to have 88 here...but probably would've stubbornly called the shove.

My reasoning is if I'm 3-betting the flop it's with the intention to never be folding...if there's a chance I'd fold to a 4-bet then I'd call the raise and re-evaluate on turn.

what was with your 3-bet size? seems kind of small...leaving yourself enough to fold?