NL200 - flop a combo draw

[Mike MacIntosh]

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A ruff idea of your equity against his calling range.

Hand 0: 37.899% 37.90% 00.00% 9380 0.00 { 5s4s }
Hand 1: 62.101% 62.10% 00.00% 15370 0.00 { 66, 22, AsQs, AJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, KsQs, AJo }

Lets assume we are a 2 to 1 dog when called.

GRUNCH METHOD

+266 -210 -210 +90 +90

We need villain to fold roughly 40% of the time for this to be 0EV.

That number seems to be unrealistic since villain has a monster most of the time here. Therefor I fold like a little girl.

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can you explain the math here? i can do it slowly with excel, but i'd like to see this fancy grunch method.

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http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...umber=10513205

[Dan Bitel]

I....um.....I....like a fold here too. His calling range has us really crushed I think. It probably is AJ,sets,higher flush draws, of which obv some include Jsxs which has us CRUSHED.

The fact there's a 3rd player in this hand makes it a LOT less likely he's just raising with air. Therefore we have a lot less FE than we thought.

I agree that SOMETIMES he's raising QJ to find out where he stands, but if we make a range, we have to weight this a lot lower than other hands.

Lastly, obv, i'm like every1 else here, and I lead this flop because, well, it just seems right....we have FE at time, we have equity blah blah. That being said, I don't actually KNOW if leading here is right. It sucks to get called or raised by solid player, and c/r the flop gives us a lot more FE....meh...i dunno