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#11
11-06-2007, 05:32 PM
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Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah Pats to beat Indy in the playoffs is more like 70-75%, unless somehow Indy gains homefield, which I don't see happening. [/ QUOTE ] 
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#12
11-06-2007, 07:10 PM
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Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
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The Pats are 40% bet to win SB tops! so even money would be a bad bet! [/ QUOTE ] Pats are +150 to win the Superbowl? Tops? Give me +125, I'll take it for 50 grand.
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#13
11-06-2007, 07:20 PM
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Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
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I know nothing about sports betting. Should I take a straight up bet that the Patriots will win the superbowl. The bet is the patriots win the superbowl yes/no pick a side and you get even money on either choice. Is there any value in this bet? [/ QUOTE ] if both bets are at +100 then one bet has to be +EV...
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#14
11-06-2007, 07:21 PM
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Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
[ QUOTE ]
If they are 80% to win each of the 3 post season games, that's 51.2% to win the SB. Assuing they will have to beat Indy again, that game is say 60% Pats win at home. .6*.9*.9=.486 Do you think the Pats win 90% against whatever other teams they have to play? [/ QUOTE ] lol the line had NE to win 66% AT indy.. so i think the adjusted line will conpensate for it being at NE now and NE chance will still be > 66%.. probably like 75%
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#15
11-06-2007, 07:33 PM
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Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I know nothing about sports betting. Should I take a straight up bet that the Patriots will win the superbowl. The bet is the patriots win the superbowl yes/no pick a side and you get even money on either choice. Is there any value in this bet? [/ QUOTE ] if both bets are at +100 then one bet has to be +EV... [/ QUOTE ] But is there enough value there to wrap up my money for so long.
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#16
11-06-2007, 08:16 PM
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Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
The Patriots are - mathematically speaking in the here and now - a -108 favorite to win the Superbowl.
Therefore, no there is not enough value to wrap up your money for that long. I thought you were brand new to sports betting? The way you phrased it made it sound like you were making a bet with your friend. If you're a Pats fan and your friend is giving you +100 and you want to make a bet, take it. If you're worried about "value" and things like that, then just pass.
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#17
11-07-2007, 08:21 AM
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Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
Stats sat 32.5% to win SB so it's a tuff bet at even up. Football Outsides who are freaklishly good at this stuff have
Pats 32.5% Dallas 22.9 Indy 19.4 GB 6.5 Pitts 5.7 Also Pats have a 22.8% chance to go 16-0
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#18
11-07-2007, 08:57 AM
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Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
[ QUOTE ]
Also Pats have a 22.8% chance to go 16-0 [/ QUOTE ] If you believe that to be true, you should hammer the "No team goes 16-0" on WSEX for -150.
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#20
11-07-2007, 03:43 PM
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Re: Are NE even money to win the superbowl?
[ QUOTE ]
If the previous NE/Indy line is any indication, New England will be 85% to win at home vs Indy. [/ QUOTE ] The line was heavily in favor of the Pats. A tax I think people on here were calling it. The true line probably should have been Pats -1 or so, even possibly having the Colts favored.
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